The BBCMyanmar's once formidable army is cracking from within – full of spies secretly working for pro-democracy rebels, the BBC has found.
The military only has full control over less than a quarter of Myanmar's territory, a BBC World Service investigation has revealed.
The junta still controls major cities and remains “extremely dangerous,” according to the UN's special rapporteur on Myanmar. But it has lost significant territory in the last 12 months – see the map below.
Military spies are known as “watermelons” – green on the outside, rebel red on the inside. Outwardly loyal to the army, but secretly working for the pro-democracy rebels, whose symbolic color is red.
A major based in central Myanmar says the military's brutality prompted him to switch countries.
“I saw the bodies of tortured civilians. I shed tears,” says Kyaw (not his real name). “How can they be so cruel to our own people? We are supposed to protect civilians, but now we are killing people. This is no longer an army, this is a force that terrorizes.”
More than 20,000 people have been detained and thousands killed, according to the United Nations, since the military seized power in a February 2021 coup. – which caused an uprising.
Kyaw initially considered deserting the army, but decided with his wife that becoming a spy was “the best way to serve the revolution”.
When he deemed it safe to do so, he leaked internal military information to the People's Defense Forces (PDF), a network of civilian militia groups. Insurgents use intelligence to set up military ambushes or evade attacks. Kyaw also sends them part of his salary so they can buy weapons.
Spies like him help the resistance achieve the once unthinkable.
The BBC assessed the balance of power in more than 14,000 village groups as of mid-November this year and found that the military was in full control of just 21 percent of Myanmar's territory, nearly four years after the conflict began.
The investigation reveals that ethnic armies and a patchwork of resistance groups now control 42% of the country's land mass. Much of the remaining area is contested.
This BC/BBCLeaked Watermelon intelligence from the military helps tip the balance. Two years ago, the resistance created a specialized unit to manage the growing network of spies and recruit new ones.
Agents like Win Aung (not his real name) collect leaks from Watermelon, verify them when possible, and then pass them on to rebel leaders in the relevant area.
He is a former intelligence officer who switched to the resistance after the coup. He says they now get new watermelons every week and social media is a key recruiting tool.
Their spies, he says, range from low-ranking soldiers to high-ranking officers. They claim that they have Deans in the military administration as well – “from the ministries to the village heads”.
They go through a rigorous vetting process to ensure they are not double agents.
The motives for becoming a spy are varied. While in Kyaw's case it was anger, for a man we call “Moe” – a Navy corporal – it was simply a desire to survive for his young family.
His wife, pregnant at the time, pushed him to do so, convinced that the military was losing and he would die in battle.
He began leaking information to the Watermelon Department about weapons and troop movements.
This kind of intelligence is crucial, says pro-democracy rebel leader Daeva.
His resistance force's ultimate goal is to take control of Yangon, Myanmar's largest city and his former home. But they are far away.
The military retains most of the major urban areas – home to key infrastructure and revenue.
“It's easier said than done to attack and occupy (Yangon),” says Daeva. “The enemy will not give up (this) easily.”
Unable to physically infiltrate the city, Daeva, from his base in the jungle, directs targeted attacks from underground cells into Yangon using Dingya's intelligence.
In August, we witnessed one such call. We weren't given details, but we were told it was about directing an assassination attempt on a colonel.
“We will do it within the security parameters of the enemy,” he told them. “Be careful, the enemy is losing in every direction,” he added, telling them this meant they were more likely to be on the lookout for infiltrators and spies.
Daeva says several major attacks on his side were the result of tip-offs.
“We started with nothing and now look at our success,” says Daeva.
This BC/BBCBut that comes at a price. Melons have to live in fear on both sides, as Navy Corporal-turned-spy Mo discovered.
Deployed from Yangon to Rakhine – a border region where the military is fighting an ethnic group siding with the resistance – he had to live with the terror that his intelligence could mean he himself was under attack.
In March of this year, his anchored ship was hit by a missile, followed by open fire. “There was nowhere to run. We were like rats in a cage.” Seven of his fellow soldiers were killed in the insurgent attack.
“Our ability to protect (the moles) is very limited,” Win Aung admits. “We cannot publicly announce that they are watermelons. And we cannot stop our forces from attacking a particular military convoy.”
He says that when this is explained to the Dinites, however, they don't budge. Some even responded: “When that moment comes, don't hesitate, shoot.”
But there are times when spies can no longer bear the danger.
When Moe had to be sent to another dangerous front line, he asked the Watermelon Department to smuggle him into an area controlled by the resistance. They do this by using an underground network of monasteries and safe houses.
He left in the middle of the night. The next morning, when he did not show up for duty, soldiers came to the house. His wife Cho was questioned, but she remained silent.
After days on the run, Mo arrived at one of the Daeva bases. Daeva thanked him via video call before asking him what role he wanted to play now. Mo replied that given his young family, he would like a non-combat role and would instead share his knowledge of military training.
A few weeks later he crossed into Thailand. Cho and the children also ran away from home and hope to eventually join him and build a new life there.
The army is aggressively trying to regain lost territory, carrying out a wave of deadly bombings. With Chinese and Russian warplanes, it has air superiority. He knows that the resistance is far from a homogenous group and seeks to exploit the divisions between them.
“When the junta loses control, their brutality increases. It's getting worse. The loss of life… the brutality, the torture as they lose ground, literally and figuratively,” said UN Special Rapporteur Tom Andrews.
The military also checks for watermelons.
“When I heard about the cleanup, I stopped for a while,” says Kyaw. He says he always acts like a staunch supporter of the military to avoid unwanted attention.
But he's scared and doesn't know how long he can stay hidden. Desertion is not an option as he worries about abandoning his aging parents, so for now he will continue to act as a military spy, hoping to see the day the revolution ends.
If and when that day comes, watermelons like Kyaw and Moe will not be forgotten, Win Aung promises.
“We will treat them with honor and let them choose what they want to do next in life.”
The military did not respond to a BBC request for an interview.
About the data:
Researchers commissioned by the BBC interviewed multiple sources from February 12 to November 13, 2024. for each of more than 14,000 village groups to assess the level of military control in their area.
The names and boundaries of village groups are taken from Myanmar Information Management Unit or MIMU, which is organized by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).
In each case, the research team spoke to at least one source without official ties to the military or the opposition – such as academics, charity workers, journalists and local residents.
When sources provided conflicting information about a village group, unrelated sources were prioritized and cross-referenced with media reports.
Responses were divided into three possible control categories:
- Military: The military is present and operating in the region. It runs a local administration or provides certain public services, all of which function normally.
- Challenged: The military is present in the region, but there are limits to their effective control. This may include areas where general administration and public services are not fully functional, or where the military shares administration with regional ethnic armed forces. It also covers areas where opposition forces can move in and out, and where clashes between opposing forces occur.
- Resistance groups and ethnic armies: The military is largely absent and has not conducted operations on the ground for more than three months. Civilian services may be provided by resistance forces, ethnic armies, or a civilian government, possibly backed by an armed rebel militia.
Some parts of the country are designated as forests and are not mapped onto village groups. They have different administrative structures mainly concerned with extraction and conservation of resources. The BBC chose to focus on areas of Myanmar that have a clearly defined system of government.
Additional reporting by Becky Dale, Muskeen Lidar, Hla Hla Win, Phil Leake, Callum Thomson, Pilar Thomas, Charlotte Atwood and Kelvin Brown. Methodological support from Prof. Lee Jones, Queen Mary University of London.