Study: US could see 6 million job losses and $1.1 trillion drop in GDP if Trump tax cuts end

First on FOX: A study released by the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) shows that nearly 6 million American jobs are at risk if President-elect Trump's tax cuts expire in 2017.

Fox News Digital first obtained a copy of the study conducted by Ernst & Young on behalf of the largest company. Production association In the United States, it found that if Congress does not act to preserve the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act by the end of 2025, an estimated 5.9 million American jobs will be lost.

The NAM argued that key pro-manufacturing provisions on research and development, capital investments and business loans of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 have already been eliminated in 2022 and 2023, and several other provisions, namely the 20 percent deduction, individually. The tax rates and estate tax exemption threshold are expected to expire at the end of 2025.

This study estimates that American economy It would face $540 billion in lost wages and a $1.089 trillion GDP deficit if the remaining tax cuts and jobs provisions expire. Additionally, if Congress does not maintain the reforms, 1.137 million manufacturing jobs, $126 billion in manufacturing workers' compensation, and $284 billion in production GDP will be lost on the production line.

“The time to act is now. Millions of American workers depend on the manufacturing sector to keep America moving forward,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons. “Pro-growth tax policies from President Trump's 2017 tax reform were rocket fuel for manufacturers and made the U.S. economy more globally competitive. Manufacturers delivered on our promises to create jobs, increase wages and benefits, and invest in our community.” By acting now, policymakers can prioritize economic growth over economic disaster and protect Americans' livelihoods.

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Timmons argued that preserving tax reform should be one of the first priorities of the new Congress and the incoming Trump administration.

“If Congress delays, manufacturers will be forced to postpone investment and job creation decisions due to an uncertain outlook. In 2017, Congress passed the landmark Tax Cuts and Jobs Act late in the year, meaning investment decisions Manufacturers could be under the law, Timmons said, not until 2018.

In 2018 and 2019, manufacturing capital expenditures grew by 4.5 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively, compared to 1.4 percent growth in 2017.

Timmons noted how manufacturers also created 267,000 new jobs in 2018, marking the best year for manufacturing job creation in 21 years.

“We can't wait this time: the economy is in a tailspin as important provisions of the TCJA have expired in recent years,” he said. “Following the end of immediate R&D spending in 2022, R&D growth in the European Union will surpass that of the United States for the first time in a decade, and China's R&D growth will triple our growth. Congress and President “Trump must act quickly to stimulate activity this year. Give manufacturers the immediate tax certainty they need to plan for long-term job-creating projects.”

NAM claims that congressional inaction will increase taxes on businesses and family businesses. increased spending on research and development, capital equipment purchases and commercial loans; and “an uncompetitive international tax regime that disincentivizes investment in the United States and impairs the ability of manufacturers to compete on the world stage.”

The Republican leadership of the US House of Representatives has indicated that they are in favor of keeping the 2017 tax reform.

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Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, said in a statement: “The non-extension of Trump's tax cuts could lead to the loss of 6 million jobs and the destruction of the US manufacturing sector.” “Congress has a responsibility to act quickly so that we can protect Americans' livelihoods, prevent wage cuts, and prevent the largest tax increase in history. We all care about Making things right here in America“So House Republicans are working hard to preserve and build on President Trump's historic tax reform and support American manufacturers.”

said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, a Republican Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act “not only boosted American manufacturing, but also spurred job growth, innovation, increased wages for hard-working Americans, and enhanced American competitiveness.”

“With President Trump's return to the White House and Republican majority In the House and Senate, we must act quickly to ensure we maintain global competitiveness, support investment and innovation, and protect small businesses and workers. “House Republicans are ready to stop the largest tax hike in history and make our economy great again.”

“This study confirms the need to urgently extend Trump's tax cuts this year by showing the real-world devastation to small businesses and American manufacturers if we don't act,” said Jason Smith, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. With nearly 6 million jobs on the line, Congress must act quickly to give America's small businesses, families and communities across the country the green light to hire more workers and expand their businesses as soon as possible. restore the economy in their lifetime. ”

“The last thing they need is the biggest tax increase in American history,” Smith added. “Ways and Means Republicans have been preparing for this moment for nearly two years and are ready to deliver an economic package that will make American manufacturing great again.”

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The study also faced a reaction from the upper house of Congress. said Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho Trump's tax reform will “allow Americans to keep more of their hard-earned money and allow businesses to invest in their ideas, products and people.” ” He added that making these tax cuts permanent “is the best way to ensure maximum economic growth, provide certainty and stability for American businesses, and prevent the economic losses described in this study.”

A press conference to further discuss the study is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at the Capitol.