Tariffs have not brought to us production: Supply chain test

If China intends to lose production as a result Tariffs of President TrumpAccording to the new CNBC supply chain test, the American production sector will not be the main beneficiary. The Trump administration claims that the reshoring boom is coming, but most companies say CNBC that costs can even twice restore supply chains, and instead a new search for regimes with a low tariff around the world will begin.

Almost three quarters of respondents (74%) stated that the cost was the main reason for the fact that it would not transform production and then the challenge of finding a qualified workforce (21%). Trump's administration promised tax reductions for companies This restoration of production, but the study showed lower taxes in the cost ranking that affect production decisions.

Despite some of the last ones loud ads from the technology sectorin this Nvidia plans for supercomputer in the USA and Apple commitment in investing $ 500 billion In the country, most companies give costs as excessive. The technology sector received relief on Friday evening from new tariffs to China and other global production nations, but the Trump administration is investigating national security, which are focused on critical technology of future tariffs.

Most respondents undertaking the study estimate that the price of building a new domestic supply chain would be at least double current costs (18%) and would probably be more than twice the road (47%). Instead of moving supply chains to the United States, 61% stated that the transfer of supply chains in lower tariffs would be more profitable.

In addition to tariffs, the demand of consumers and the prices of raw materials, as well as “inability of the current administration to ensure a consistent strategy”, they were cited as key fears of the supply chain.

Most respondents (61%) stated that they believe that Trump's administration “intimidates corporate America.”

380 respondents from companies in the supply chain and business organizations conducted on April 14-18 were conducted in the survey. The survey was sent to members The American Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers, National Retail Federation, American Apparel and Footwear Association, Footwear distributors and American retailers, Council of Professionals for Managing Chain Chains, Ol USA, OL USA, Seko Logistics and its logistics.

Among the respondents pointing to the interest in restoring the American supply chain, they expect a process that will last for many years, and 74% expect a schedule of three to five years, if not longer: 41% stated at least three to five years; 33% stated more than five years.

Automation will dominate people

If the production returns to the USA, automation will be the main element of the economic model, and 81% of respondents say that it will be used more than employees.

“The American labor market is a problem when considering moving back to the USA,” said Mark Baxa, CSCMP Chain CEO CEO.

In the current environment, release is a direct problem, and respondents have almost evenly divided between those who plan to reduce employment (47%) and those who claim that they do not have current plans to dismiss (53%). Most respondents expect job reduction over the next nine months and 38% in two to three months.

Fed survey released on Monday The tide of fear of exemptions.

At the moment, the most widespread reaction to Trump's tariff is the cancellation of orders (89%) based on the expectation that consumers will withdraw expenses, every 75% of respondents said they were forecast. In the case of products that are subject to new tariff rates, 61% of people who participated in the survey found that they would raise prices.

“The direct influence is the cancellation of orders, and the risk of withdrawing consumer expenditure is noteworthy,” said Bax.

Survey respondents expect that the most difficult products as a result of withdrawal of consumer expenditure will be discretionary products (44%), furniture (19%) and luxury (19%).

“As of today, we have observed a serious cancellation or break for freight from China, but we observe increased volumes and load from other countries in Asia that had mutual tariffs stopped for 90 days,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of the global supply chain in his logistics.

Recession warning against supply chain

Sixty -three percent of respondents warn about the recession affecting the US economy this year as a result of Trump's policy, with about half (51%) of people who expect them to hit Q2.

“Supply chains, which support millions of jobs in the USA, supply US producers and provide accessible choices for American consumers, now experience early signs of damage due to these destructive tariffs,” said Steve Lamar, general director of American Apparel & Footwear Association. “Higher prices, loss of jobs, product deficiencies and bankruptcy will be only some adversities that he believes in the US, while the president strives for this improper tariff policy.”

Cnbc said earlier that Damage to enterprises throughout the economy It may soon be “irreversible”.

Trump's national director Kevin Hassett, said on Monday that over 10 countries have submitted “amazing” commercial offers to the United States and Guarantees “100%” There is no recession.

Many surveys receiving the pulse of presidents show widespread expectations that The recession could already start Is it It will come soon.

Larry Fink, general director of Blackrock, said that based on the conversations he had with general directors in the entire economy, the US or are Very close or already in the recession Now.

Smaller companies and startups say that the tariffs will be catastrophic and expose us to a threat.

“Small consumer companies that started with an innovative idea have no capital to invest in construction factories,” said Bruce Kaminstein, a member of NY Angels and the founder and former director of Casabella. “They were forced to go abroad because of the lack of production plants here in American factories in China, they were satisfied with our activities and helped us to introduce our products to the market,” he said.

At this time of year, when retailers order their items back to school and holiday, and although importers withdraw from 5% to 30%, according to the study, most respondents say that orders for a return and holidays have not been existing. But most respondents (75%) indicate that they will raise the price of these high -level seasonal goods. They also suggest that companies are preparing for a cautious consumer. It focuses more on holidays cheaper for holidays (67%) and more promotional items (21%). The aspiration luxury (7%) and luxury (5%) took last place among planning orders during the holiday season.