Tariffs, inflation, and recession fears could be a tail for this retail stock and drive it to a $ 1 trillion valuation


Currently, only seven public companies trade in market capitalization north of $ 1 trillion. The unique list of trillion-doler stocks includes Apple,, Microsoft,, Nvid,, Hamazon,, Alphabet,, Meta platformsand Berkshire Hathaway.

Beyond trillion-doler stocks, the next three largest companies in the world as measured by the market cap Broadcast,, Testifyand Taiwan's semi -conductors manufacturing. Do you see any themes here?

Where to invest $ 1,000 right now? Our analysts team revealed what they believe is 10 best stock to buy right now. Continue »

With the exception of Berkshire, all trillion-dollar businesses or nearly millions of dollars dominate the technology sector. The next largest company after those referred to above is a retail expert Step (NYSE: WMT). With a market value of around $ 760 billion, Walmart is the most valuable playless technology business on the planet except Berkshire.

Outside the Walmart store.
Image source: Getty images.

What is interesting is that every company that is appreciated above Walmart may be facing some unwanted deceleration across their different businesses thanks to a large extent Policies tariff. A common fear in the stock market at present is that tariffs could lead to higher prices (inflation) for consumer and raw materials, thereby firing economic slowdown (recession).

Like Contrarian, I think a slowdown caused by tariff could actually benefit Walmart. Let's explore why Walmart's business is ideally placed to move around any crises caused by tariffs. From there, I will present the case why Walmart could win his access to the Trillion-Doler Club.

Walmart is mainly known as brick and mortar powerhouse-offers consumers a variety of goods across clothing, consumer electronics, products, home medicines, and much more. While that may not sound too different from shops like Target or CvsThe main offer of Walmart's value is its attractive prices. Cost -conscious shoppers tend to gravitate towards stores like Walmart during periods underlined by rising prices or economic uncertainty.

To complement this idea, let's look at some key performance indicators for the retail jyggernaut over the past few years.

US inflation rate chart
US inflation rate data by Ugharts

The chart above shows trends seen in the revenue and gross profits of Walmart, indexed against inflation rates over the past five years. In addition, I have included the brief (but important) Covid-19-19-as shown by the gray column on the left. Let's unpack what is happening here.

Following the Covid-19 recession in early 2020, levels of inflation accelerated-by the peak of about 9% in the mid-2022, during this time, during this time, revenue and gross profits began to climb steadily. This is an impressive achievement, given that many retailers are plagued by lower foot traffic during the pandemic.

Not only are Walmart prices one way to attract consumers, but the company has also done stellar work that complements its physical retail store fronts with its own e-commerce market-by providing it with several paths to monetize shoppers.

Taking this a step further, let's analyze some important metrics that retailers use to measure the health of their business. During the fourth quarter of the 2025 Walmart (which ended January 31), the sales growth company recognized the same store of 4.6%, while transactions rose 2.8%and an average ticket size grew 1.8%. This means that Walmart sees more people coming to their shops and spending more money while they are there.

While sales of the same store, transaction volumes, and average order size may be variable in the retail space, I think any concerns associated with this are mitigated by Walmart's ability to retain its shoppers. The big takeaway I assemble from the above chart is that the revenue and gross profit of Walmart continues to rise steadily, even as levels of inflation have cooled over the past two years.

I think the ongoing economic uncertainty of tariffs may be a tail for Walmart and its ability to attract users in and keep them part of its long -term ecosystem.

For the financial year ending January 31, Walmart's total earnings per share (EPS) was $ 2.42. Given the company's current shares price of $ 95, Walmart's stock trades for a price-to-ears ratio (P/E) of approximately 39.

A $ 1 trillion market capitalization suggests a broadly 32% walmart current valuation of $ 760 billion. This means to get to the trillion-doler club, Walmart's stock would need to be trading about $ 125 per share.

If I assume the company expands its EPS and P/E 15%ratio, that would suggest $ 2.81 future earnings and a P/E ratio of 45 for Walmart. In turn, this leads to the price of shares of about $ 126 in the future, which would give Walmart slightly higher than the capitalization of a trillion-dollar market.

I think this level of EPS growth is achievable for Walmart, especially against the backdrop of a cloudy economic picture. The larger question mark is whether investors will start applying a premium multiplicity to Walmart-considered a more vital player in the retail arena, all in commending the company for some of its higher edge activities beyond brick and mortar sales.

Although the above exercise is rooted in simple mathematics, I am very optimistic that Walmart could emerge as a member of the trillion-doler club sooner rather than later. Investors looking for opportunities that may be insulated a few tariffs or economic slowdowns may want to consider a job in Walmart at present.

Before you buy stock at Walmart, consider this:

The Motley Fool's Stock Advisor The analyst's team noted what they believe is 10 best stock For investors to buy now … and Walmart was not one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster gains in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix He made this list on December 17, 2004 … If you invested $ 1,000 at the time of our recommendation, You would have $ 594,046!* Or when Nvid He made this list on April 15, 2005 … If you invested $ 1,000 at the time of our recommendation, You would have $ 680,390!*

Now, it's worth noting Stock AdvisorTotal average earnings is 872%-Market performance that squeezes compared to 160% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 Stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns from April 21, 2025

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, a Sub -company from Amazon, is a member of the Board of Directors of the Motley Fool. Suzanne Frey, an alphabet executive, is a member of the Board of Directors of the Motley Fool. Randi Zuckerberg, former Market Development Director and spokesman for Facebook CEO and Meta Platforms, Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of the Board of Directors of the Motley Fool. Adam Spatacco It has jobs in the alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla platforms. The Motley Fool has jobs in and recommends the alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Meta platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Taiwan's semi -conductors manufacturing, target, Tesla, and Walmart. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom and CVS Health and recommends the following options: Long January 2026 $ 395 calls on Microsoft and short calls January 2026 $ 405 on Microsoft. The fool has motley and Disclosure Policy.

Contrarian views: Tariffs, inflation, and recession fears could be a tail for this retail stock and drive it to a $ 1 trillion valuation Originally published by The Motley Fool



Source link

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *