Tariffs, trade and visas to dominate conversations

When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Washington and meets with President Donald Trump later this week, there will be some warm hugs and shared laughter. But that won't be all.

Trump and Modi have developed a strong personal rapprochement over the years, marked by high profile meetings and joint appearances.

After their first meeting in Washington in 2017, their relationship has grown through other events, including joint participation in massive rallies in Houston and Ahmedabad. Their chemistry stems from shared worldviews and politics and mutual strategic focus on counteracting China, concern that has also strengthened the wider partnership between the US and India.

Not surprisingly, Trump often criticizes India, but has never criticized Modi.

And so, during Modi VisitThe two leaders are likely to spend time mapping the next steps in the US and India strategic partnership, which is already in a good place.

Modi is reported to meet with several Trump cabinet members as well as the US business leaders and members of the Indian-American community.

He can also meet with SpaceX and Tesla Chief Elon Musk. Modi wishing to scale the growing sector of electric vehicles in India will be happy if Musk opens a Tesla factory in India.

Nevertheless, the Trump Modi Council and the onset of the strategic partnership can mask a sobering reality: During the visit of Modi, the transaction side of the relationship will enter into a sharp relief with any leader, especially Trump armed with a number of requests.

Delhi knows Trump well. Many of the current Modi cabinet ministers have also served during his previous term, which overlaps with part of the first Trump administration. This familiarity was set out after Trump's in -Month -month post: Delhi has a public signal His willingness to reduce tariffs, to take back undocumented Indian immigrants and to buy American oil.

There is already reduced Some rates and taken back 104 undecumed Indians, with the first aircraft arriving in India last week. These preventive steps aim to prevent Trump from making specific demands to India and reducing the likelihood of tension with the new Trump administration.

However, Trump may ask Modi to make additional tariff discounts to supplement further deficit of goods and services in the United States with India that has approached $ 46 billion (£ 37.10 billion) in recent years. But an obstacle can become an opportunity: Modi may call Trump to enter bilateral conversations for consent to an economic partnership designed to reduce tariffs on both sides.

In recent years, Delhi has shown a growing willingness to pursue trade dealsS The Trump administration may be a more desired interlocutor than the Biden administration, which has imposed difficult conditions related to the environment and labor under new trade agreements.

Trump may also ask Modi to return more undocumented Indians. Given that some estimates put the number on More than 700,000 – The third largest group in the US – this will be a difficult and delicate problem for Delhi to navigate.

Last week, India Foreign Minister S Jaishankar told parliament That the government is working with the United States to ensure that Indian citizens have not been abused while they have been deported after their messages have been chained, anger caused anger.

Trump can also call Modi to buy more US oil.

In 2021. India was Top destination For US oil exports, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine brought major changes to the global oil markets and prompted Delhi to increase the import of cheap oil from a close partner Russia. The price point will determine how much oil India is ready to buy from the United States.

Modi can also come with your own energy question: invest in Indian nuclear energy. Delhi is amendment His law on nuclear responsibility and has announced a new mission of nuclear energy in an attempt to sharpen the international interest in fuel.

India aims to meet half of its energy requirements through renewable energy by 2030. With Trump's request to invest in nuclear fuel is a potential happy environment: it is cleaner than fossil fuels, but far from sunny and wind energy , which may not hit Trump administration as an attractive investment.

Technology will probably be discussed.

This was a fast -paced space for bilateral relations in the Biden era, thanks to the implementation of 2022 of Initiative for critical and emerging technology (ICET), which both sides are seen as a new cornerstone for strategic partnership. ICET is intended to be monitored directly by the two national security advisers – in order not to sink into the bureaucracy – which means that everyone must personally be invested in it.

Modi will probably seek assurances from Trump and his national security advisor Mike Wals that they remain engaged in this. Given Washington's focus on China's opposition by turning India into a larger part of technological global supply chains, they are likely to do so.

Also on the technological cooperation front, Modi can make a ground for Trump to maintain H-1B visa modeS These visas for highly qualified foreign workers strongly criticized by some Trump influential supportershave been awarded to a large number of Indian technology employees in the United States.

Other countries may also occur during Modi's conversations in Washington. Iran can become especially large.

Delhi has partnered with Tehran to develop a port in Chabahar, part of a width Indian strategy to strengthen connecting connections to Central Asia, through Iran and Afghanistan. But last week the US administration released president memorandum Outlining Trump's “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran, which hints at removing refusals for sanctions for those conducting commercial activities in Chabahar. Modi can seek clarity what this means to Delhi.

Trump may also assess the position of fashions a great priority for foreign policy: termination of wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

Delhi has a strong interest in those wars that are wound. Modi's position on the war in Ukraine – the summoning to end the conflict without criticizing Putin or Russia echoing that of Trump.

India's special relations with Russia and close ties with Israel can encourage Trump to see if Modi would want to play the role of a third -country mediator. Modi would probably be convenient to do so only if the parties are receptive to external mediation.

But despite some potentially delicate discussions this week, both leaders will want to maintain a positive tone.

In this respect, the Indo-thihocean square will be exactly what the doctor orders.

Trump strongly supports this group, which consists of the US, India, Japan and Australia, and focuses on countering Beijing.

In his first term, Trump has raised Quad's annual meetings to Foreign Minister and Biden's level to raise them to leaders.

India is planned to host this year's Quad meeting and Modi may invite Trump to Delhi to attend this.

Trump is reported Not a big fan On international travel, but India is a trip that he is likely to want to deepen his personal relationships with Modi and to improve a multifaceted bilateral partnership that extends far beyond the transactionis that will carry the day in Washington this week.

Michael Kugelman is the director of the Wilson South Asia Institute in Washington

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