The air conditioning puzzle continues with an unexpected January

Last month, it was the most warm January in the world, raising further questions about climate change rates, scientists say.

January 2025 is expected to be slightly more cool than January 2024 due to a shift from a natural time model in the Pacific, known as El Nino.

But instead, last month he broke the record in January 2024 with nearly 0.1 ° C, according to the European Copernicus Climate Service.

Warming in the world is due to gas emissions to heat the planet from human activities – mainly the combustion of fossil fuels – but scientists say they cannot fully explain why last month is particularly hot.

It continues a series of surprisingly large temperature records from mid -2023, with temperatures around 0.2 ° C above expected.

“The main reason why we are broken records and we have had this decades of warming is that we are increasing the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” Gavin Schmidt, Director of the NASA Studies Institute for Space, in front of the BBC News.

“The specifics of exactly why 2023 and 2024 and (beginning) 2025 were so warm, there are other elements involved there. We are trying to secure them.”

January 2025 ended with 1.75C warmer than January temperatures from the late 19th century before people began to warmly warm the climate.

Earlier last year, global temperatures were elevated by A natural model of childhood weather conditionswhere unusually warm surface waters spread to the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean. This releases extra heat into the atmosphere, raising global temperatures.

This year, the conditions of La Niña are developing instead, according to the American Scientific Group NOAA, which should have the opposite effect.

While La Nina is currently weak – and sometimes it takes a few months to have the full effect on temperatures – it was expected to lead to a cool January.

“If you asked me a few months ago what it would look like in January 2025 compared to January 2024, my best shot would be more cool,” said Adam Skyif, a leader of the Decadal's predictions in the UK, said Adam Skyif, Head of a decadel's predictions at the United Kingdom office, said Adam Skyfe, said Adam Skyif, Head of Deacadal Forecasts at the Met's office in the UK, said Adam Skyif, head of decadal forecasts at the Met United Kingdom office, Adam Skyfe, the leader of a decadal.

“We know now that it is not and we don't really know why it is.”

A number of theories have been exposed to why the last few years have been warmer than expected.

One idea includes a prolonged response to the oceans to 2023-24 El Nino.

Although he was not particularly strong, he followed Unusually long phase of La Nina from 2020-23S

Therefore, the El Nino event can “lift” when warming, allowing ocean heat that accumulates to escape into the atmosphere.

But it is not clear how this will still affect global temperatures directly Nearly a year after El Nino's endS

“Based on historical data, this effect has probably decreased so far, so I think if the current record continues, this explanation becomes less likely,” says Prof. Skyif.

The fact that maritime temperatures in other regions of the world remain particularly warm can suggest that “the behavior of the ocean is changing,” according to Samantha Burgez, a deputy director of Copernicus.

“We really strive to see how ocean temperatures develop because they have a direct effect on air temperatures.”

Another prominent theory is a reduction in the number of small particles in the atmosphere, known as aerosols.

These tiny particles have historically masked some of the long -term greenhouse gase warming such as carbon dioxide and methane, helping to form bright clouds and reflect some of the energy of the sun back into space.

Recently, aerosol numbers are falling, thanks to the reductions of small particles of shipping and the Chinese industry, for example, aimed at cleaning the air that people breathe.

But this means that they did not have such a large cooling effect to compensate for the continued warming caused by greenhouse gases.

And this cooling effect of aerosols is underestimated by the UN, according to James Hansen, a scientist who made one of the first warnings for the profile of climate change in the US Senate in 1988.

Most scientists are not yet convinced that this is the case. But, if true, it may mean that there are more climate change in the store than it was expected earlier.

“The nightmare scenario,” says Prof. Skyfe, would be an additional cloud feedback in which the warming ocean can cause reflective low -level clouds to dissipate, and warming the planet further.

This theory is also very uncertain. But the upcoming months should help to shed some light whether the “extra” heat over the last few years is suppression or acceleration in warming beyond what scientists have expected.

At the moment, most researchers are still expecting 2025 to be slightly more cool than 2023 and 2024 – but recent heat means that they cannot be sure.

However, what they know is that additional records will follow sooner or later as humanity continues to heat the planet.

“In time, 2025 will probably be one of the cool years we are experiencing,” said Dr. Burgess.

“Unless we exclude this touch to (greenhouse gases) emissions, then global temperatures will continue to rise.”

Ervan Rivo Graphics