The flow of Russian gas to several European countries was was suspended on New Year's Day After Ukraine refused to renegotiate the interwar agreement with Moscow.
Ukraine's reluctance to renew the five-year agreement aims to rob Russia of money that Moscow can use to support its war, but this move could cause a power crisis in Eastern Europe, with Transnistria – a breakaway region of Moldova – reducing the heat. and hot water for families.
“It brings to an end the Russian dominance of the EU energy market,” Al Jazeera's Jonah Hull, reporting from the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, said. Before the Ukraine invasion in 2022, Russia provided about 35 percent of Europe's natural gas pipelines.
With the closure of Russia's oldest gas route to Europe, which has been operating for more than 40 years, Russia's share has dropped to 10 percent. Another gas pipeline that runs through Turkey is still supplying gas to countries such as Hungary.
So, how will the winter shutdown affect the countries, especially in Eastern Europe and what will happen next?
Why did Russian gas stop going to Europe through Ukraine?
Russian gas giant Gazprom said on Wednesday that gas shipments to Europe would be suspended at 8am (05:00 GMT) after Ukrainian oil and gas company Naftogaz refused to renew its latest five-year contract.
On Wednesday, the Minister of Energy of Ukraine German Galushchenko said in a statement, “We stopped the flow of Russian gas. This is a historic event. Russia is losing its markets, it will lose money. Europe has already made a decision to stop Russian gas.”
The latest agreement was first signed in 2020 where Ukraine was paid for the visit. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that Kyiv will not renew the travel agreement amid the ongoing war.
How much gas did Russia export to Europe?
Many European countries began to reduce their dependence on Russian oil after Moscow invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
At its peak, Moscow's share of gas from Europe stood at 35 percent, but has fallen to around 8 percent.
The European Union received less than 14 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas from Russia via Ukraine as of December 1, down from 65 bcm a year when the agreement began in 2020.
The gas is transported through the Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline from Siberia via Sudzha, a town in Russia's Kursk region that is now controlled by the Ukrainian military. Gas goes through Ukraine to Slovakia. There, the pipeline splits into branches that lead to the Czech Republic and Austria.
The deal was bringing money to Russia and Ukraine.
Ukrainian journalists quoted Serhii Makohon, the former head of GTS Operator of Ukraine, as estimating that Russia made more money from the travel cooperation than Ukraine.
Makohon says Russia receives $5bn a year, a figure that was also reported by Reuters. On the other hand, Ukraine was receiving $800m a year “but most of this money is spent on tourism. The (Ukrainian) economy receives $100-200m in taxes and benefits,” Makohon was quoted as saying by Ukrainska Pravda.
Bloomberg estimates that Russia's revenue from the deal is skyrocketing, at $6.5bn a year.
Will there be a power outage? Who will be affected by this?
Austria, Slovakia and Moldova depended on the pass for their electricity.
Austria was receiving most of its gas from Russia via Ukraine, while Slovakia was getting about 3bcm via this route a year, which was about two-thirds of its needs.
Austrian energy regulator E-Control has said it plans to switch and should not face disruptions.
Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico said on Wednesday that the shutdown would cost the Eastern European country hundreds of millions of dollars and higher fees for importing other gas.
Fico stressed that this would cause gas prices to rise across Europe. Slovakia's finance ministry said the country would have to pay 177 million euros ($184m) to receive gas through other channels.
Perhaps the most vulnerable is Moldova. Russia sent about 2bcm of gas through Ukraine to the Russian-allied region of Moldova Transnistria every year from 2022. Transnistria, which borders Ukraine, will sell electricity, produced by Russian gas, to the government-controlled regions of Moldova.
Moldova has already declared a crisis due to the impending gas shortage. President of Moldova Mrs. Sandu has criticized Gazprom for not considering an alternative, and has said that the winter in Moldova will be “bitter” without Russian gas.
However, Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean has said that Moldova has different sources of gas supply.
On Wednesday, Transnistria, home to 450,000 people, cut off heating and hot water.
Ukraine itself does not use Russian gas, according to the European Commission, which added that the bloc was prepared to cut it.
Has the flow of gas from Russia to Europe stopped completely?
The pipeline through Ukraine was one of Russia's last gas export routes. Other pipelines were closed after the war in Ukraine in 2022, including the Yamal-Europe pipeline through Belarus and the Nord Stream pipeline under the Baltic Sea that sent gas to Germany.
Russia still uses the TurkStream pipeline on the Black Sea bed to export gas. The pipeline consists of two lines, one feeds the domestic market in Turkey, while the other supplies central European customers including Hungary and Serbia.
However, TurkStream has the lowest annual capacity, amounting to 31.5bcm for both lines combined.
What are the European alternatives?
Europe has been trying to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, as it bought natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and the US, along with pipeline gas from Norway.
“The gas structure in Europe is flexible enough to provide non-Russian gas to Central and Eastern Europe through alternative routes. It has been strengthened by new LNG facilities from 2022,” said Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, spokeswoman for the European Commission.
Slovakia's main energy supplier, SPP, said on Wednesday that it had prepared for the transition and would supply its customers through alternative routes, mainly from Germany and Hungary. However, it added that it will face additional costs in transportation costs.
According to the Austrian energy regulator E-Control, Slovakia can receive gas from Hungary, about a third from Austria and the remaining part from the Czech Republic and Poland. The Czech Republic has also said it could offer Slovakia gas pipelines and storage facilities.
Transnistria's energy company Energocom released a statement on Tuesday saying that Moldova can meet 38 percent of its energy needs through domestic production, including 10 percent of renewable energy. Energocom added that Transnistria will send the remaining 62 percent from neighboring Romania.