The Hitchhiker's Guide to Failing to Elect the Speaker of the House Quickly

The problem has been percolating for a while.

It has been underground. Lurking beneath the surface. It doesn't have to be visible.

Except those follow Congress closely.

But the issue has been on the rise since the House stumbled badly trying to prevent a government shutdown last week.

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To know:

Congress vacillated between a staggering, 1,500-page bill. Then he defeated a narrow, 116-page bill — one that President-Elect Trump had promoted. Things got worse when the House passed the minimum 174-year mandate for the Trump-sponsored bill and 38 Republicans voted no. The situation worsened when the House voted to prevent a government shutdown for the holiday – but passed the bill with more Democrats (196) than Republicans (170). Thirty-four GOPers voted no.

It could have been a long time Speaker of the House Mike JohnsonR-La., may face a challenge to win the speaker's address immediately when the new Congress convenes at noon ET on Jan. 3. Congressional experts knew Johnson could be in trouble as soon as the straw-thin House began. weeks after the November election. This could become a complete disaster for Johnson – and House Republicans – when the speaker selection begins shortly after 1pm ET next Friday.

Johnson emerges reluctant from last week's government funding donnybrook. Anywhere from four to 10 Republicans could oppose Johnson in the speaker's race.

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Here are the numbers:

The House consists of 434 members with one vacancy. Thanks for the first one Representative Matt GaetzR-Fla. He resigned for this Congress a few weeks ago. Although Gaetz won re-election in November, his resignation letter – read on the floor of the House – indicated that he does not plan to serve in the new Congress, which begins in January.

This is the breakdown when Congress began: 219 Republicans to 214 Democrats.

Trump's pick for national security adviser, Representative Michael WaltzR-Fla., is currently in the House. It is the same with Rep. Elise Stefanik, RN.Y. Trump asked him to serve as the United States ambassador to the United Nations. This is pending Senate confirmation – probably in late January or early February. Once Waltz and Stefanik resign, the GOP majority drops to 217-214.

But the election of a speaker on January 3 presents a special challenge. Here's the bar for Johnson – or anyone else: The Speaker of the House must win a majority of all members voting for the person by name. In other words, the person with the most votes does not win. That's what happened repeatedly to former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., when he used to introduce House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, DN.Y., for the speaker to start this Congress in January 2023. But it took days for McCarthy to walk through the right door.

More on that in a second.

So let's crunch Mike Johnson's numbers. If there are 219 Republicans and four of them vote for someone other than him – and all the Democrats throw their votes for Jeffries, the total is 215-214. But there is no speaker. No one received a majority of all members voting for a person by name. The magic number is 218 if all 434 members vote.

Legally, this paralyzes the House. The House will, of course, do nothing until it elects a speaker. Time.

The House cannot swear in members. In fact, they are still elected representatives. Only after the House elects a speaker and he swears in the members.

Indeed the House will not pass laws. It cannot form committees. It is frozen in parliament paralyzed until it elects a speaker.

Now, I hope you're sitting down for the next episode.

This also means that the House cannot confirm the results of the Electoral College, to do Trump the 47th president of the United States on January 6.

Failure to elect a speaker forces the House to elect again and again…

And again… and… more…

Until finally it hits someone.

McCarthy's election burned 15 votes in five days two years ago.

The House went into congressional cryogenic freeze for three weeks after members expelled McCarthy in October 2023. It fired two speaker candidates from the floor — House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn. . – with one candidate down: Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio.

So you see the problem.

Consider for a moment that before last year, the House had not gone to a second election to elect a speaker since Speaker Frederick Gillett, R-Mass., in 1923.

It took 63 votes before the House finally settled on Speaker Howell Cobb, D-Ga., in 1849.

But that is nothing. The longest speaker election lasted two months before the House elected Speaker Nathaniel Banks, R-Mass., in 1856 – with 133 votes.

So anything that prolongs this to collide with Jan. 6 – the official day to confirm the election results and now one of the saddest days in American history – dangerous.

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To be clear: there is no disputing that Trump won the election. There is no expectation of repeating the chaos in the Capitol like four years ago. But the failure to ensure the College on the date it should be completed – especially after the experience of 2021 – is playing with fire. Such a situation would also reveal another weakness, which has never been considered a weak American political system.

On January 6, the House and Senate are scheduled to meet in a joint session of Congress to present and confirm the electoral votes. Any disagreements over the state election slate force the House and Senate to debate and vote separately on those results. The election is not final until the joint session concludes and the vice president – in this case Kamala Harris – in her capacity as president of the Senate, announces the winner.

Congress is not required to confirm the Electoral College on the calendar day of Jan. 6. There is actually some freedom in packaging. In 2021, the Electoral College was not confirmed until approximately 3:52 a.m. on Jan. 7. It becomes a big problem if this continues until noon on Jan. 20. This is when the Constitution mandates that the elected president take the oath of office.

What happens if the Electoral College is not fixed by January 20? No, President Biden is gone. So he's gone. So is Harris. Next in line to the presidency is the speaker of the House. Well, there is no speaker. So who becomes president?

At that time there is a president pro tempore of the Senate, the most senior member of the majority party. He is the fourth in line for the presidency. At this time, the president pro tempore is Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash. But Republicans are seeking control of the chamber in early January. And unlike the House, if written on the speaker, The Senate is still working. That means Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, 91, becomes Senate president pro tempore. Grassley has served in the Senate since 1981.

If the House is wasting time, trying to elect a speaker on January 20, Grassley may be the “acting president.”

I write “perhaps” because this is getting into some serious, unconstitutional territory. These are unprecedented situations. Strange countries did not visit the American political experience.

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And it all depends on Mike Johnson — or, frankly, someone else — finalizing the speaker's vote by posting on January 3rd. Any relationships like the last two speaker elections are starting to create difficult historical events.

But to be honest, it is not clear whether the House can avoid such a scandal.

It's about numbers. And again, balancing that number of parliament is very difficult.