The parties are finally talking, but why now?


Laura Bicker

Chinese correspondent

Watch: The US and China are ready to speak tariffs – who will flash first?

US-CHINA The trade war can be releasedWith the two largest economies in the world to start conversations in Switzerland.

Top Trade officials from both sides will meet on Saturday At the first meeting at a high level after US President Donald Trump hit China with tariffs in January.

Beijing avenges immediately and there was a tense upholding when the two sides accumulated levies on top of each other. The new US tariffs for Chinese imports are 145%, and some US exports to China face 125%.

There were weeks of breast milk, and sometimes fiery, rhetoric, where each country seeks to draw the other like a more desired party.

Still, this weekend, they will face each other on the negotiation table.

So why now?

Rescue

Despite numerous circles in the Tit-For-Tat tariffs, both sides are sending signals that they want to break the impasse. But it was not clear who would flash first.

“None of the countries want to look back,” says Stephen Olson, a senior visiting contributor to Singapore, Izsoff Ishak Institute and a former negotiator for the US trade.

“The conversations are being held now because both sides have considered that they can move forward without appearing that they have joined the other side.”

However, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian stressed on Wednesday that “talks are being held at the US request.”

And the Ministry of Trade put it as a Washington service, saying it responds to “American Business and Consumers Calls.”

The Trump administration, however, claims that Chinese employees “want to do business a lot” because “their economy crashes.”

“They said we initiated? Well, I think they have to come back and study their files,” Trump said in the White House on Wednesday.

Getty Images XI Jinping, Wearing a Black Coat and Light Blue Tie, walking in front of a number of Russian soldiers wearing bayonGhetto images

While Chinese trade officials head to Geneva, Xi Jinping is in Moscow to meet with Vladimir Putin

But as the conversations approached, the President made a more distinguished note: “We can all play games. He who made the first call he did not make – it doesn't matter,” he told reporters on Thursday. “It only matters what is happening in this room.”

The weather is also crucial to Beijing because it is during the visit of SI to Moscow. He was an honorary guest on Friday at the Moscow Victory Day parade to celebrate the 80th anniversary of World War II victory over Nazi Germany.

Stood with leaders from all over the global south – a reminder of the Trump administration that China has not only other trading opportunities, but also presents itself as an alternative global leader.

This allows Beijing to design strength even when heading to the negotiating table.

Pressure is on

Trump insists that tariffs will make America stronger, and Beijing has sworn to “fight until the end”- but the fact is that the levies hurt both sides.

Factory production in China has taken a hit, according to government data. Production activity in April dropped to the lowest level since December 2023 and a study of the Caixin news trip this week showed that the services of services reached a seven-month low level.

BBC found that Chinese exporters try the steep rates, with stocks accumulated in warehouses., Even when they hit a challenging note and look for markets outside the US.

“I think (China) is aware that the deal is better than no deal,” says Bert Hoffman, a professor at the East Asian Institute at Singapore National University.

“So they took a pragmatic look and said,” Okay, well, we have to make these conversations. “

And so with the main holiday in May in China, Beijing employees decided that time was appropriate to talk.

On the other hand, the uncertainty caused by the tariffs has led to a negotiation of the US economy for the first time in three years.

And industries that have long depended on the goods made by China are particularly worried. Owner of the toy company in Los Angeles Before the BBC that they “look at the full implosion of the supply chain.”

BBC/XIQing Wang Man with a white shirt and blue jeans wearing a black backpack walks down a corridor at a shopping center surrounded by plush toy shopsBBC/XIQing Wang

Toys for sale in China Yiwu, the largest wholesale market in the world – China sold toys worth $ 10 billion to the United States last year

Trump himself admitted that US users will feel the stingS

American children can “have two dolls instead of 30 dolls,” he said at a cabinet meeting this month, “and maybe the two dolls will cost a few dollars more than usual.”

Trump's approval estimates also slid out of inflation fears and a possible recession, with over 60% of Americans saying that it focuses too much on tariffs.

“Both sides are pressured to provide a little reassurance in the increasingly nervous markets, business and domestic constituencies,” says G -n -Olson.

“A few days of Geneva meetings will serve this purpose.”

What happens after that?

While the conversations were greeted with optimism, a deal may take some time to make it.

The conversations will be most for a “touch of a base,” said Hoffman, adding that this may look like “exchange of positions” and if things are going well, “it will be), designated for future conversations.”

Negotiations are expected to take months, similar to what happened during Trump's first term.

After nearly two years, tariffs for Tit-Za-Ta-tat, USA and China signed the Phase One deal in early 2020 to stop or reduce some levies. Even then she did not include Thornier problemsAs subsidies for a Chinese government for key industries or a timeline for scraping other tariffs.

In fact, many of them remained in place through the presidency of Joe Biden, and Trump's latest tariffs add to those older levies.

What could appear this time is “The First Steroid Deal Phase,” said G -n -Olson: That is, it will go beyond the earlier deal and try to deal with FlashPoints. There are many, from Fentanyl illegal trade that Washington wants China to break down more strongly Beijing's relationship with Moscow.

But all this is far along the line, experts warn.

“The system three, which will soon be decisive in the US and China trade relations, will not be resolved soon,” adds Mr. Olson.

“Geneva will only prepare Anodin statements about Frank Dialogues and the desire to continue to speak.”



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