The Indian economy is only to start FY26 with the intensifying of global uncertainty, and the discussion of the RBI for the research signals for the policy signals to survive the challenging economic territory.
Minutes about MPC discussions, MPC discussions, to turn on ratio cuts, demonstrate the attention of the MPC to support economic growth. Since then, inflation has fallen further and projected inflationary route for the next forty months and eight months.
The reason for anxiety about inflation on the MPC increases the policy space for deep rate cuts. In addition, the financial inflation is less than 4% trend at a level of 4%, and the real interest rate of the economy is currently in a mode of moderate real ratios in level 1.4-1. The real interest rate of the economy is endemic to the economic interest rate of the economy. The minutes of the past MPC shows that one member may argue that the policy rehabilitation rate could quickly be limited. To bring real interest rates in the passive range, policy fee must be reduced by 50-75 bp by 50-75 bp.
From the domestic perspective, therefore, BPS 25 BPS 25 BPS has a policy space and follows another ratio cuts after year. However, the global background is uncertain. Liberation Day Tarifies Notices have further increased global uncertainties.
The 10% basic fee of 180 countries is better than the pre-market expectations. It makes it difficult to measure the amount of bilateral deficit and non-tariffing of barriers to estimate the fees we face. It can trusted in different countries and restore global trade flows.
The impact of Indian economic parameters, such as export and growth, will remain uncertain to time to settle down. Because RBI responds to financial policies to change financial policies, it will be prudent to continue its moderate position.
If MPC's interest rate should not be reduced in April, whether the current rate cutting cycle should proceed to protect the growth impulses of local and global challenges. The RBI opened up the RBI operated ratios on current economic quality conditions, the interest ratio of the RBI opened cycle, the assessment rate of current economic conditions offer some clearly on a cumulative rate on current economic conditions.
Another challenge that MPC faces the following week is to increase the efficiency of the policy rates. Reduce the cost of borrowing of any decision to reduce ratios, the investment should be accelerated and provide relief to consumers with high interest rates for loans. However, liquidity should be meaningfully positive to reduce the rates.
The liquidity of the banking system has a shortage from mid-December 2024 to enter the system long-term liquidity. We expect liquidity measures from RBI in the early early 1rd of FY26, and we expect the rbbles of RBI and reduce the cost of borrowing.
Overall, MPC is 25 more BPS at April EmpC meeting, which runs a moderate stand in the center of the Global Headwinds of 25 BPS. RBI is most likely with a certificate of dowis policy tone and liquidity. There will be a bonus collected by any signal collected in the cost and peripheral policy ratio of dique.
The author is the main economist, El and T Face Finance Limited.
The comments of experts are his / her comments.
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