The time has come for us to treat earth as power. China is already doing this

In April 2025, China imposed new export controls on seven elements of rare lands and permanent magnets from them – materials that are the foundation of modern life and modern war. Fighters, bulletsElectric vehicles, drones, wind turbines and even data centers are based on high -performance magnets made of these critical minerals. Limiting his flow, Beijing not only bending his industrial muscles, but revealed America and the rest of the dangerous susceptibility in the world. The latest activities of China Show their readiness and the ability to armament of American and global dependencies.

This is not a new challenge. The United States has known for over 15 years that their critical mineral supply chains have been too focused, too fragile and too vulnerable to the Chinese lever and control. And yet, as part of the democratic and republican administration, we did not react with urgency or consistency. Now the consequences of these failures have caught our neck and cascade in our trade and defense sectors.

After talks in London, Washington and Beijing announced on Friday New trade framework According to which China will resume approval of export licenses for rare lands over the next six months. American officials publicly captured the breakthrough – but they gave some details about what was given in return. This leaves the main questions unanswered: what were the US compromises? How will the contract be enforced? And what happens when six months grow?

Skepticism is high. Ford has recently stopped production at the Chicago plant due to a magnet deficiency-concluding that even short-term breaks in deliveries have real consequences. Paper contracts are not a supply chain solutions. Without transparency, timely approval and long -term planning, this can easily become another diplomatic cycle one step forward, two steps back.

Even this limited relief carries the risk. Dozens of companies in Europe and North America described China export license process as a highly invasive -Singing from companies to send detailed production data, end applications, object images, customer names and transaction history. Some applicants were refused that they did not provide photos or documentation of their end users.

The management claims that this process is “official extraction of information”.

While companies are recommended that they do not share sensitive IP, omitting key details may mean indefinite delays. In the case of companies in defense supply chains, implications are disturbing: a valuable commercial interview can be used to mapping competitors, disruption of prices or the progress of Chinese substitutes.

This is not just a licensing – it is a competitive surveillance. And until the US builds a safe, independent capacity in the critical supply chain of minerals, it remains exposed to both interference and data risk.

This susceptibility did not occur overnight. Many have been observing this train wreck in slow motion for years. In 2010, China cut off the export of rare lands to Japan during a maritime dispute, which a clear warning of the shot the US observed, but rejected. In 2014, Obama's administration won the WTO case against Chinese export restrictions, but wrongly assumed that legal success would stop further manipulation.

What Trump did, biden

Trump's first administration identified rare land as critical, but in particular they released them from China's Tariffs 2018, perhaps unspeakable recognition of the US dependence. Biden has adopted the most structured approach so far: Executive Order 14017, Working Group for Critical Minerals and financing with IIja and IRA. Strategic partnerships such as Minerals Security Partnership have appeared. But the progress was slow, difficult by allowing delays and uneven obligations of an ally.

The second administration of Trump returned with more aggressive means, citing section 232, activating the Act on defense production and proposing a significant increase in financing in the 2016 budget year. The National Energy Domination Council now coordinates efforts. However, these funds, like a six -month relief in China, still do not deprive Beijing. And most importantly, the defense sector remains cut off, without a license window available.

The recent G7 peak in Canada was emphasized by Global Stakes. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen He directly accused China of “arming” his control Above key materials such as Earthlings, calling for united G7 response. Result: G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan. Although China was not mentioned by name, the overtones were undoubted. The plan obliges G7 members to raise ESG standards and identifiability for key resources; mobilize capital to new projects in critical mining and mineral processing; and cooperate with innovations in the field of recycling, substitution and refining technologies.

As you might expect, Beijing reacted with fury. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected this plan as a “pretext for protectionism, claiming that G7 incurred confrontation of fear of losing market share.

Brussels is now signaling that commercial negotiations with Beijing are effectively stuck in a deadline, so Chinese retaliation opportunities are growing – especially against the EU. If China doubles, they risk that the office, Japan, South Korea and India more strongly on the orbit of Washington – this is what he hopes to avoid Beijing.

The dominant position of China in mining rare lands

Raw numbers are stunning. China constitute about 70% of global mining of rare lands, but over 90% of the refinational abilities. It produces 92% of global neodymu-iron-boron (ndfeb)-used in everything, from submarines to Teslas. This domination is not an accident. China subsidized processing, focusing on global acquisitions throughout the entire supply chain, and scale production much faster than the West can approve and issue permits for one mine.

The USA likes MP materials“Pass Mountain Pass and Round remain incomplete without further processing. DOD and Doe offered subsidies, and the Trump budget for the 20126 budget year is aimed at increasing the US mining capacity and provide access to critical minerals. But all this remains overshadowed by China Start and long -term industrial command and control of the sector.

China moved early and definitely to Africa and Latin America, cooperating with the rule of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Bolivia and Chile; Investing in ports, rails and raffination infrastructure. In contrast to this, efforts and commitment in the US in these sets of problems were fragmentary and valuable, priority transparency and management, really important issues, but providing limited momentum of critical mineral problems. Even the recent Mous with Ukraine and the Democratic Republic of Congo remains symbolic, hindered by conflict and instability in these countries.

London talks and last progress in a trade transaction have bought time. But time without a strategy is not fruitful. The Chinese licensing system remains intact, its data requirements are not failure. The defense sector remains turned off. Meanwhile, congress threats with the withdrawal of pure energy and financing of industrial policy can stop the designs of rare Earth, as they gain adhesion.

This is a decisive moment. China bet that America's internal divisions – between work, industry, ecologist, tribal nations and political factions – will prevent a kind of united, permanent effort needed to compete. They may be right. The US must prove that they are wrong.

Critical minerals are geopolitical power

The United States must now treat critical minerals not as goods, but as instruments of geopolitical power. China is already doing this. Escape at a hug will require something more than my permits and short -term financing. It requires a coherent, long -term strategy for building a complete supply chain, which includes not only national capabilities, but also reliable allies and partners. From extraction and refining to the production and recycling of magnets, each relationship must be strengthened through targeted investments, reform and strategic coordination.

A successful and balanced policy requires commitment from one presidency to the next. The US also cannot afford to engage allies and partners rhetorically. Countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile and Indonesia (among others) require permanent partnerships supported by financing, technology transfer and critical infrastructure investments, not only our lectures on management.

A six-month export relief from China is not a solution-it is a test of extreme conditions. It reveals whether the US can finally focus and act, or whether they retreat into self -complacency again. Beijing assumes that it will be the latter. Washington must answer urgent, unity and strategy equal to the scale of the challenge. There is still time, but not much.

– –By Dewardric mcnealManaging Director and Senior Politics Analyst at LongView Global and CNBC collaborator