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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
In less than three weeks from now, Donald Trump will be sworn in for a second term as US president. Although much of his appeal stems from his disregard for convention, Trump is the most important predictor of quality. Since losing the 2020 election, he has steadfastly vowed to use the tools of American justice to settle scores with enemies. In this the returning president must be taken seriously at least. The same applies to his view that officials should be loyal to themselves, rather than to the US constitution.
In his first term, Trump he was always cool when his reckless desires were blocked by government attorneys, Pentagon officials, intelligence agencies and others in the so-called Department of Energy. This time he took pains to appoint people who could be trusted to do his will without regard to rules and convention. Former attorney general Bill Barr alleged that during his first term Trump suggested that his rivals be “killed”. Barr said he wasn't worried about Trump's influence because he knew it would be contained.
Such concessions are no longer necessary. The Supreme Court last July greatly increased Trump's powers by granting close immunity to the US president's “official acts”. In theory this may include killing political enemies. In reality, it will almost certainly involve a legal witch hunt against Trump's opponents in politics, the media and the public. Some of them, like Liz Cheney, a former Republican congresswoman, and Mark Milley, who was the chairman of the US chief of staff, have chosen repeatedly.
It would be foolish to think that the impact of punishment will stop at the water's edge. Even before he took office, Trump went he was threatened with possession the Panama Canal, which was restored to Panamanian control in 1999, also featured architecture Greenlandwhich has long been under Danish rule. Although Democratic and Republican administrations have flouted international law when they have, none have come close to Trump's contempt for the idea. The world should prepare for a less restrained Trump in his second term than in the past.
Trump standard senior nominees it must focus minds at home and abroad. Of these, Kash Patelas head of the FBI, Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence, and Pete Hegseth as US defense secretary, set off the loudest alarms. Patel is a Trump-honor who has published a list of his enemies. Gabbard was an admirer of the brutality of Bashar al-Assad, the recently ousted government in Syria and a frequent proponent of Vladimir Putin's propaganda about Ukraine. Hegseth, a Fox News anchor, believes the US military should be purged and replaced by Trump loyalists.
The most effective check on Trump's negative influence may be the US Senate. Republicans have a slim 53-47 margin. All it would take is four Republicans to block the nominee. Yes, Matt Gaetz, Trump's first choice as his next attorney general, had to withdraw when it became clear that he lacked votes. True conservatives know for sure that the rule of law is at the heart of the US tradition and the market economy. The Senate should block the confirmations of Patel, Gabbard and Hegseth. Lower court judges, the media and civil society also have a great deal of leverage to offset Trump's worst influence.
Like all strongmen, Trump fears the brave and despises the sycophants. He has threatened to use his presidential powers to target those who block his path. Complying with Trump's wishes will only increase them. The American system is about to get the mother of all stress tests. Courage, above all, will be the most valuable thing in the coming months.