This story initially appear on VOX and part of Climate table cooperation.
Globally, Humanity is producing more food More than ever, but that harvest is concentrated in just a few bread.
More One third of the world's export of wheat and barley Coming from Ukraine and Russia, for example. Some of these high -yield agricultural lands, including large cultivation areas in the United States, are on the way to see the strongest decline in harvesting due to climate change.
It is bad news not only for farmers, but also for all those who eat meat, especially because it becomes more difficult and expensive to raise a more crowded, crowded world, according to a new study published in the magazine. Nature.
According to a moderate greenhouse gas emissions, six main crops will drop by 11.2 % at the end of the century compared to a world without warming, even if farmers try to adapt. And the biggest drops that don't occur in poorer people, more marginal agricultural land, but in places are big food producers. These are areas like the Middle West of the United States that have been blessed with good land and ideal weather to raise key items such as corn and soy.
But when the weather is less ideal, it can significantly reduce agricultural productivity. The harsh weather has begun to eat in the harvest season this year: floods Rice destroyed in TajikistanThen Cucumber in SpainAnd Australian bananas. Serious storms in the US this spring Causes millions of dollars damage to plants. Over the years, serious heat has led to a great decline Blueberry, olive and grapes. And when the climate changes, the average temperature increases and the changing rainfall models are ready to reduce productivity, while weather events such as drought and floods reach more extreme to wipe out the harvest more often.
Andrew Hultgren, an agricultural researcher at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, said it is not a mystery that climate change will affect our food production. This is the field of exposure to the most weather in the economy.
Farmers are doing what they can participate Different crop varieties That can withstand changes in climate, change Time when they sowAdjust their use Fertilizers and waterand invest in Infrastructure such as a reservoir.
The question is whether these adjustments can continue to keep up with warming. To find out, Hultgren and his team reviewed crop data and weather from 54 countries around the world since the 1940s. They especially looked at the way farmers adapted to changes in the climate that happened, focusing on corn, wheat, rice, cassava, vermicelli and soybean. Combined, these crops provide two -thirds of human calories.
In the natural article, Hultgren and his group reported that in general, adaptation could slow down some crop losses due to climate change, but not all of them.
And the reduction of our food production can be devastated: for each level of heating, global food production is likely to reduce 120 calories per person every day. It even considers climate change that can make the seasons grow longer and how many carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can encourage the growth of the tree. In the scenario of moderate greenhouse gas emissions, the link between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius, the heating of the year 2100The Viking's income and adaptation will only compensate for a third of the seasonal losses worldwide.