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The G7 is “the governing committee of the free world”, according to Jake Sullivan, national security adviser to President Joe Biden. If so, the free world has a problem. Most of the G7 governments are now so plagued by domestic political problems that they cannot govern their own countries – let alone a free country.
Consider the political conditions in France, Germany, Canada, Japan and South Korea (the latter is not officially a member of the G7, but regularly attends summits). In France, the government recently collapsed after being unable to implement the budget. A the new prime minister exists but will face the same problems. There is much speculation that Emmanuel Macron will step down as president before the end of his planned term in 2027.
Germany will go to the polls after the collapse of the “light traffic” coalition led by Olaf Scholz. Recent elections in Japan saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lose its majority for the first time since 2009 – with another vote likely next year. In a CanadaJustin Trudeau's decade in power is coming to an ignominious end. With his party steadily in the polls, the prime minister is under intense pressure to resign.
I piece of resistance of the decline of democracy South Koreawhere President Yoon Suk Yeol's political position became so bad that he declared martial law. Popular protests soon forced his resignation and led to his impeachment.
Apart from the US, the only two G7 countries likely to have a stable government in place are the UK and Italy. Britain's Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, won a majority in this summer's election. But his poll ratings have plummeted. After all, Starmer is now more unpopular after five months in office longer than any UK prime minister in four decades. Only Italy's Giorgio Meloni can make a viable claim to the spotlight accordingly by his voters and the markets.
So what's wrong with the G7? As before, local context is important. In Japan, corruption scandals have weakened the LDP. Macron and Trudeau are both leaders who have lost their luster after many years in office.
But there also appear to be two major factors that are making it difficult for almost all G7 democracies to maintain stable governments. The first is the decline of political institutions and the rise of populist parties. The second is money squeeze caused by slow growth, a depleted population, pandemics, the 2008 financial crisis and the need for increased defense spending.
Populism and financial problems feed off each other and make it more difficult to govern. The French government was then overthrown he tried to cut spending and raise taxes to combat a budget deficit of 6 percent of GDP. Since the majority of the French parliament is in the hands of the left or the right, it is very difficult to negotiate political agreements.
Starmer's majority in Britain enabled his government to do what the French could not – raise taxes, an effort to organize the books. But the tax hike has contributed to a decline in Labour's popularity. The difficulty of finding money in hard times also played an important role in the political problems in Canada and Japan.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House may have contributed to the atmosphere of political instability in the G7. Instead of trying to help the governments of his fellow Democrats, Trump and his will now, Elon Muskthey seem to enjoy being in pain. Maga Republicans are very fond of leftist leaders such as Trudeau, Scholz and Starmer.
Trump went out of his way to shame Trudeau, referring to Canada as America's 51st state and the prime minister as “the governor”. Musk has made headlines across Europe sending to X: “Only the AfD can save Germany.” He also held a publicized meeting with Nigel Farage, Britain's Reform leader – who made it clear he hoped for Musk's funding.
Trump's Republicans no longer regard traditional conservatives in Europe as their sister organizations. Kemi Badenoch, leader of the British Tories, and Friedrich Merzthe leader of Germany's Christian Democrats, can only look on with dismay as Trump and Musk reach for the radical, nationalist right. Christian Lindner, the leader of Germany's embattled, pro-business Free Democrats, issued an appeal to “Elon”, declaring that the AfD is an “extremist party”. Impressively, he seemed to believe that this would put Musk.
Merz's CDU is currently ahead of the AfD in German elections. But right-wing and populist groups in the G7 now clearly have an ally in the White House. Musk can help parties like AfD and Reform with people and, possibly, money. But his support can sometimes backfire. Nationalist groups such as French National Rally have an anti-American tradition and will be wary of being seen as tools for rich immigrants.
Trump's intervention may not guarantee that he can install ideological sleepers in the rest of the G7. Instead, you can create a situation where the leaders of many countries close to America come to regard the US president as a friend, but as a dangerous political enemy.