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Israeli-Iran's conflict raises concerns about the potential closure of the Hormuz Strait.
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Goldman Sachs and other banks warn of the risks of recession if the world's oil supply is disrupted.
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Higher oil prices would affect world -wide growth and inflation.
The risks of recession has come down significantly from their peak in April after Donald Trump's tariff announcements, but the Israel-Iran's conflict Fired new concerns about the world's economic growth path.
Have Airstrikes Ni on Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend, Markets are worried for Iran blocks the A strait of hormuzOne of the world's most important oil vessel choking points. Over the weekend, Iranian Ods closed the Hormuz Strait to over 50% on Polymarket.
The risk of further military exacerbation is a major reason Goldman Sachs He said he has not breached his recession probability, which is hovering at 30%.
With about 20% of the world's oil passing through the strait, closing would be a bottleneck oil supply and sending oil prices, and subsequent inflation, higher.
At the current levels approximately $ 73 barrel of US oil and $ 76 per barrel to Brent, Raw Oil prices Having increased about $ 10 per barrel since early June, it would not be enough to pose a major threat to GDP inflation and growth, Jan Hatzius, the bank's chief economist, wrote in a weekend note.
However, he sees the possibility that a much larger price will move “in a tail scenario where the conflict is expanding significantly further and/or the Hormuz strait is closed. In that tail scenario, the risk of recession would climb suddenly.”
In a worst scenario, oil volumes through the Hormuz Strait could drop by 50% for a month, then wait down 10% for another 11 months, analysts predicted Goldman Sachs goods.
That would lead Brent oil Prices are to be reached at $ 110 per barrel before coming down to $ 95 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025.
While the basic cause of Goldman Sachs assumes that Brent oil prices fall to $ 60 by the end of the year and provide a modest boost to GDP growth, disruption in energy supply could reduce global growth by 0.3 percentage points and send inflation rising 0.7 percentage points.
In terms of markets, Morgan Stanley also sees oil prices rising as a potential negative catalyst firing a 19% reduction in the S&P 500.