US President-elect Donald Trump has been baking Canada like a maple-glazed ham in recent days. But amidst all the sizzling punchlines, some of the lesser-noticed messages may have more substance.
The running gag about Canada being the 51st state is clearly intensifying stream yuck, yuck on Fox News and the outrage of its critics.
But new statements from his transition team, campaign, press secretary and Capitol Hill Republicans may ultimately point to a more optimistic development for Canada.
Trump's victory lap
This carries the risk that tariffs will crush Canada's economy. And the excuse that Trump initially gave for imposing them: the desire to introduce new border controls on the flow of migrants and fentanyl.
The development is such that his team is now taking a victory lap. He is celebrating the changes Canada announced at the border on Tuesday as proof that Trump has done his job.
“President Trump is delivering on his mandate for sweeping change,” his transition team said in a Wednesday press release titled “President Trump is securing the border and he hasn't even taken office yet.”
“Promises made, promises kept.”
That's exactly what Canadian officials believe predicted after meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago: They understood that he wanted to declare that he was saving American lives before taking office.
Now the new White House press secretary is also posting this triumphant message on her Instagram and X accounts, and Capitol Hill Republicans are bragging about Trump's victory.
“We're aware of that,” pro-Trump congressman Andy Biggs said when asked by CBC News about the announcements from Ottawa issued the previous day.
“And that's what really happens when a strong leader comes in and lays down the markers. We're really happy about it.”
Canada announced multiplicity new changes, from new helicopters at the border, through migration controls, new money laundering regulations, to the creation of a joint Canada-US police task force to combat fentanyl.
And now the key question: will this be enough for Trump to abandon the threat of a 25 percent tariff? It's not clear. Trump's allies in Congress say they have no idea.
“I don't know,” Biggs replied when asked. He turned to other Republican colleagues nearby and asked if anyone knew the answer. None did.
“You're asking me to read President Trump's mind. I will say that I support him and he is doing a masterful job.”
It's certainly possible that Trump could still impose tariffs on Canada.
But in doing so, he would now risk encountering three opposing currents. Several polls now suggest a Canadian tariff he is unpopularespecially for swing voters; this threatens his signature campaign promise to keep prices low; and now he can risk the cooperation with Canada he celebrates.
Trump still left himself with some wiggle room when it comes to implementing tariffs or other future trade actions; he has repeatedly referred to Canada's trade deficit with the US as a rip-off, ignoring its close link to the price of oil.
51st said “great idea,” Trump writes
Oh, and there's one more thing he doesn't want to let go of so easily: jokes. These at the expense of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the country next door.
On Wednesday, Trump once again wrote favorably about Canada becoming the 51st state, calling it a “great idea.”
“No one can answer why we subsidize Canada with over $100,000,000 a year? This doesn't make sense! Many Canadians want Canada to become the 51st state,” he wrote on Truth Social. “They would save enormously on taxes and military protection.”
Since winning the November 5 election, Trump has issued a series of statements and social media posts in which he mocked Canada and Trudeau, previously calling him the “governor” of the 51st state.
No one can answer why we subsidize Canada with over $100,000,000 a year? It doesn't make sense! Many Canadians want Canada to become the 51st state. They would save enormously on taxes and military protection. I think it's a great idea. 51st state!!!
Donald Trump Social Truth…
Earlier this week, Trump responded to Chrystia Freeland's stunning resignation from the Cabinet, calling it “toxic.”
Freeland was extensively involved in trade talks with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer during Trump's first term. The two, along with a top Mexican official, signed the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in 2019, updating the previous North American Free Trade Agreement.
US President-elect Donald Trump has again suggested that Canada should join the United States, this time in a social media post in which he called Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a “governor.”
Are you repeating the old trade deficit claim?
Biggs, a Republican congressman from Arizona, shrugged it off when asked about Trump's comments about Canada as a state: “The humor is dead,” Biggs replied. “I think Donald Trump is joking, OK?”
Some suggest Trump is simply trolling, others suggest the threat is an effective political tactic.
“It's about domination and intimidation. He has been very successful in using these strategies, and typical politicians usually don't know how to respond.” – Jennifer Mercieca, professor of communications at Texas A&M and author of the book Demagogue for president: Donald Trump's rhetorical geniushe recently told CBC News.
Mercieca said Trump's sense of humor creates an “in-group and out-group” that divides people into different divisions.
It's not exactly clear where the $100 million Trump quotes came from, although he appears to be repeating a number from seven years ago, based on Lighthizer's statements at the time.
According to reporting by CBC's Evan Dyer at the time, Lighthizer cited a figure in his export calculations that included goods that move through Canada but do not originate from here as Canadian exports, artificially inflating the United States' trade deficit in goods with Canada. This figure did not include trade in services.
Trump has long lamented the U.S. trade deficit with other countries, although some economists say the trade deficit alone does not provide a complete picture of the economy.
“A larger trade deficit could result from a stronger economy as consumers spend more and import more, and higher interest rates make foreign investors more willing to put their money in the United States,” the Council on Foreign Relations think tank said in a 2019 report.
Canada's defense spending under control
Previous U.S. presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama urged NATO alliance members to increase domestic defense spending, and in 2014, NATO members agreed to devote two percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) to defense spending over the next decade. At the time, Canada was spending just 0.9 percent of its GDP on defense.
During his first presidential campaign and subsequent term, Trump complained about alliance members and falsely claimed they were “falling behind” on spending.
Canada's military spending is currently estimated to be between 1.3 and 1.4 percent of its GDP.
This summer, Trudeau told a meeting of NATO parliamentarians that Canada was on track to meet its commitment to spend two percent of GDP on defense by 2032, a commitment that was tepidly met by the U.S.
Canada and other countries should meet the NATO-mandated goal of spending two percent of GDP “as quickly as possible,” U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said, while Republican Rep. Jim Risch of Idaho last month suggested that Trump will make a “very big laugh” on Canada's current timeline.
Canada's federal defense minister, Bill Blair, has said in recent weeks that he is “ready to move faster,” and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte earlier this month issued a clear appeal to alliance members increase its defense spending to “significantly more than two percent.” Alliance members must have defense spending available “for war,” he said.
Some analysts say a flat metric may provide an incomplete picture.
“Spending at two percent says little about a country's actual military capabilities; its readiness, deployability and
sustainability levels; and the quality of the forces it can field,” the Carnegie Europe think tank said in a 2015 report.
Moreover, despite the $38 billion modernization package announced by the Liberal government in 2022, Canada Obligations to the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) have also come under scrutiny.
Last month, Blair said he was turning to the United States for help because most of what the Canadian Armed Forces needs to acquire comes from American corporations and defense contractors.
Canadians are not happy about being the 51st
A recent Leger poll found that 13 percent of Canadians would like the country to become the next US state. Demographic data shows that support is higher among men, at 19 percent, compared to just 7 percent of women.
Conservative Party supporters were 21 percent, and one in 10 Liberal voters said they supported the idea. The People's Party of Canada had the highest level of support among federal parties – 25%, while the NDP had the lowest – 6%.
Of the overall population, 82 per cent opposed the idea, with the largest numbers coming from the Atlantic provinces, women and Canadians over the age of 55. Leger conducted the survey of 1,520 people between December 6 and 9. The poll had no margin of error because online surveys are not considered truly random samples.
This is not an issue frequently polled among Canadians, although it has occurred in the past.
A Gallup poll conducted in 1990 during the heated negotiations over the Meech Lake Agreement revealed that only 13 percent of respondents supported the idea of their province joining the United States, with 79 percent opposed.
In 1964, Maclean's published a special issue devoted to U.S.-Canada relations. In a survey commissioned by the magazine and several other Canadian media outlets, including CBC Inquiry17 percent supported a union between Canada and the United States, and an additional 12 percent strongly supported the union.
In the latest episode of CBC, Canadians spoke about the prospect of becoming part of the United States Cross-country review.
You can hear what listeners had to say here:
Cross-country review55:00Topic 1: What do you think about all the Trump jokes?