Amid the relief at the thought of the hostages returning home and an end to the carnage and destruction in Gaza, there are also many questions about why a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas – negotiated with the help of Qatar – could not have been signed eight months ago.
For some observers, the key difference is the future US president, whom Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu found difficult to say no to.
Donald Trump is putting “intense pressure… not only on Hamas and the Qataris, but also on us to reach an agreement,” Israeli Channel 14 political commentator Tamir Morag told his listeners on Tuesday, referring to his talks with officials in Netanyahu's government.
His political correspondent Yaron Avarham spoke in a similar tone on Channel 12.
Trump “pushed hard and clearly told the prime minister he wanted to reach an agreement before his inauguration,” Avarham said on Jan. 20, adding that the draft proposal is “the same agreement” that was submitted on May 27 by the Biden administration.
This application called for a permanent ceasefire, starting with an exchange of Palestinian hostages and prisoners, followed by an Israeli withdrawal from the populated areas of Gaza. It also included an increase in humanitarian aid, followed by a long-term plan to rebuild the destroyed enclave.
AND draft of the applicable contract under consideration, provided to news agencies such as Reuters by Israeli and Palestinian officials, contains all or almost all of the same provisions.
It is unclear how much influence Trump had on Israel, but in December he promised that “all hell would break loose” if no agreement was reached.
While this was widely interpreted as a threat to Hamas, it could also have consequences for Israel.
Some Israeli observers believe that Netanyahu and the Gaza war simply became a distraction that Trump was unwilling to deal with, and that the prospects of being the decision maker on the historic agreement were much more attractive.
“I think Trump has other issues on his agenda,” said Yossi Beilin, a former cabinet minister of labor in the Israeli government and a key figure who helped initiate peace talks leading to the 1995 Oslo Accords.
Trump and Netanyahu have a “very, very fragile friendship,” he told CBC News, suggesting that while the two leaders may share authoritarian tendencies, they are not natural allies.
More than 46,000 people have died in Gaza over the past 15 months, and the pace of Israeli bombing has continued even as negotiators press for a final agreement, with 27 more people killed in just the last day.
On the Israeli side, Hamas' rampage in Israeli communities on October 7, 2023, killed over 1,200 people, most of them civilians, and another 403 soldiers lost their lives fighting in Gaza.
Hamas has taken nearly 250 people hostage, and dozens are still believed to be being kept alive.
Under the terms of the ceasefire, Hamas agreed to return 33 hostages within the first 16 days and then negotiate the return of the remaining hostages. Israel agreed to withdraw most of the Gaza Strip, except for a buffer zone around its perimeter. Once the hostages are released, Israel will also release more than 1,000 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.
Biden's deal?
On Monday, US President Joe Biden appeared to take credit for the breakthrough, saying the current proposal was largely the same as the one he and his team tried but failed to convince both sides to accept eight months ago.
Since then, a series of failed negotiations have left tens of thousands of Palestinians and more than 122 Israeli soldiers dead and at least eight hostages dead; some died as a result of Israeli attacks.
Biden and his Secretary of State Antony Blinken have been sharply criticized by Palestinians, human rights groups and even some of the hostages' families for Netanyahu's repeated concessions.
Opponents blame the Biden administration for enabling horrific Israeli attacks on residential areas in Gaza and for repeatedly failing to enforce so-called American red lines, such as when Israeli forces invaded the southern Gaza city of Rafah, threatening hundreds of thousands of people.
Families of hostages with American citizenship he also wanted the president break their own deal with Hamas to release their loved ones because they felt the Israeli government was ignoring the Biden administration.
However, along with international pressure, Netanyahu's decision to agree to the deal this time was likely also influenced by domestic politics.
After 15 months of relentless beatings from Hamas, the Israeli leader's promised “total victory” remains elusive.
The militant group continues to fire rockets into southern Israel, and over the past 72 hours, nine Israeli soldiers have been killed and a dozen seriously injured in northern Gaza.
Although key Hamas military leaders were killed, so was the entire group she showed resilience by recruiting thousands of new members.
“The mood is somber,” said Beilin, a former cabinet minister.
“The government says, 'Yes, we are winning'… But you can't drag this explanation out too long.”
However, powerful voices within Netanyahu's ruling coalition continue to urge Israel to continue fighting,
Far-right national security minister Itamar Ben Gvir he boasted about the pressure he put on Netanyahu that scuppered previous ceasefire agreements, and insisted his coalition partners do the same this time.
Ultimately, however, Netanyahu may have calculated that standing up to Ben Gvir and bringing the remaining hostages home alive would mean a much-needed political victory
“The far right is a burden to (Netanyahu),” wrote Mairav Zonszein, an analyst with Crisis Group think tank, on X. “He is interested in returning the hostages because it relieves him of pressure and is a victory for the Israeli public.”
Hamas has weakened
Hamas's weakened position also clearly influenced its decision to conclude the agreement.
Despite successful recruitment efforts in Gaza, its broader strategic position has deteriorated since May.
Its military leader and mastermind of October 7, Yahya Sinwar, was killed by Israeli troops in October. Israel also murdered most of the leaders of its key ally, Hezbollah, in Lebanon.
Iran, one of Hamas' key benefactors and an important supplier of military equipment, has also been weakened by Israeli attacks.
On Tuesday in Khan Younis, amid a tent city of hundreds of thousands of people driven from their homes by war, people told CBC News they hope the militant group won't sabotage their chance to start their lives again.
“We hope that Hamas will agree to these negotiations and try to end the suffering of our Palestinians,” said Hala Abu Dabaa, 30.
Alaa Awda, 32, said much the same thing.
“I hope that when this war is over, we will be able to live in peace, we will be able to build our homes again and live like other people around the world.”