US President-elect Donald Trump said at a wide-ranging press conference on Tuesday that “all hell will break loose in the Middle East” if the Hamas hostages are not released by inauguration day. Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.
“If they don't come back by the time I take office, all hell will break loose in the Middle East,” he said. “And it's not going to be good for Hamas, frankly, it's not going to be good for anybody. All hell will break loose. Needless to say, but it is so.
Mr. Trump has not detailed what steps he will take if the hostages are not released before he takes office. And he refused to detail what he or his advisers did in the days leading up to the inauguration. Officials say about 100 hostages remain in Gaza, including some Americans captured on October 7, 2023, although they believe many have died in captivity.
“They should never have been taken,” Mr Trump told reporters. “The October 7 attack should never have happened. People forget that. But there was, and many people died.”
President Biden and his top national security aides have been trying to negotiate the release of the remaining hostages for months. A deal appeared imminent several times, only to fall apart after Biden administration officials were overruled by Hamas negotiators. Israeli officials have also objected to parts of the proposed agreements.
During his remarks, Mr. Trump suggested that his threats against Hamas would lead to the group's withdrawal. But Middle East experts have struggled to understand the meaning of Mr. Trump's threats.
Daniel J. Kurtzer, who was the US ambassador to Israel during the George W. Bush administration, said, “I have no idea, and neither does he.”
Over the past 15 months, the Israeli military has nearly destroyed Hamas as an organized fighting force. It's unclear what else the incoming Trump administration or any stepped-up attacks by Israel might accomplish.
“I don't see any scenario where US forces would be involved; In any case, we have no better idea than the Israelis about what will force Hamas's hand,” Mr. Kurtzer added. “Bluster is the worst form of politics.”
Aaron David Miller, a former State Department Middle East analyst and negotiator, said it was unclear what Mr. Trump could do if the hostages were not released by his deadline. And he asked whether Mr Trump could persuade Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to a deal.
“Trump will never hurt Hamas and the Palestinians more than Israel,” Mr. Miller said. “He has leverage over Netanyahu. But could he really use this to force Israel to accept the terms of a deal that would appear to favor Hamas?”
On Tuesday, the president-elect invited Steve Vitkov, whom he intends to appoint as Middle East envoy, to speak to reporters. Mr. Witkoff said negotiators were “making a lot of progress,” but he did not give specifics.
“And I don't want to say too much because I think they're doing a really good job,” Mr. Witkoff said. “I really hope we have good things to announce on behalf of the president before the inauguration.”
“I really believe we're working really well in tandem,” Mr. Witkoff said, praising the efforts of the Biden administration. But he also singled out Mr. Trump, saying that the impetus for these negotiations is the president-elect's “commitment” and “the red lines he has set there.”
Mr. Witkoff added that he is “leaving tomorrow” to return to Doha, where Israeli and Hamas delegations are holding talks through Qatari intermediaries. It was not clear what role, if any, Mr. Witkoff played in those negotiations.
The reality of administration change in the United States has complicated the last-ditch effort by Mr. Biden and his advisers to reach an agreement to release the hostages. Families of those still detained urged Biden and Trump officials to work together to achieve that goal.
Biden's national security officials said they had kept Trump's colleagues fully informed about the talks. And members of both teams have the same goal: to use the inauguration deadline to pressure Hamas into releasing everyone it holds.
But if released, the two administrations will be sharply divided over who deserves the credit.
The comments by Mr. Trump and Mr. Witkoff on Tuesday were designed at least in part so that the president-elect could claim credit for the release if it happened just before he took office. Mr. Witkoff told reporters that he thought Hamas was listening to Mr. Trump.
“He's urging us to speak decisively, and he's strongly suggesting that you better understand this – it's better if you do,” he said, adding that Hamas was not waiting for Mr Trump to take office. “I think they heard him loud and clear. It is better that he does his job before the inauguration.”
Mr. Biden's aides said Mr. Witkoff and the Biden administration's chief negotiator, Brett McGurk, spoke regularly and that the discussions were “constructive” and “appropriate.” Mr. McGurk was the lead negotiator working to bring the two sides to an agreement.
This contact suggests that “the Biden and Trump teams are more coordinated than the Obama and Trump teams in, say, late 2016 and early 2017,” said Nathan Sachs, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
But Biden officials say progress toward a deal is the result of months of painstaking negotiations and Israel's intense bombardment of Hamas.
Israel's bombing of Gaza – heavily scrutinized from many parts of the world for killing tens of thousands of people – has severely damaged Hamas and killed most of its leaders, including Yahya Sinwar and the masterminds of the October 7 attacks. . Israel's strikes against Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon have further isolated Hamas, Biden officials say.
They also note that the deal currently being negotiated with Hamas is based on the agreement Mr. Biden proposed to Israel and Hamas in May, which was later approved by the United Nations Security Council.
Mr. Miller said it would be unusual for a member of the incoming administration like Mr. Witkoff to be directly involved in sensitive negotiations with foreign countries.
“For him to say today, 'we're making progress,' is admirable,” Mr. Miller said, referring to Mr. Witkoff. “He, like Trump, entered a negotiation process that belonged to the Biden administration and they had no official role. And of course, when that happens, they set the stage to claim credit for the deal.”