Boats in the port of Mui Ne, Wietnam, March 8, 2023.
Alexandra Schuler Picture Alliance Getty images
Vietnam has long been seen as a successful example of covering external trade, losing some of the largest companies in the world to establish hubs in order to produce everything from footwear to electronic products that Grace buys all over the world.
But now concerns that the aggressive tariffs of US President Donald Trump could deraise the ambitious goal of Vietnam's growth despite diplomatic overtures in Washington, which, according to economists, will not change politics.
Trump hit A nation of Southeast Asia with 46% import obligationOne of the steep among Managed by over 180 countriesBy dealing a heavy blow to the nation that came Almost 90% of the annual gross domestic product According to estimates from the World Bank in the export of goods and services in 2023.
According to estimates of the economist team from the OCBC bank, new fees can exempt by 1.2 percentage points. “At least 8%” this year.
The growth of the economy of Southeast Asia has already released this year, increasing 6.93% in the first quarter, compared to 7.55% in the quarter earlier.
Vietnam appeared as a production center for many companies that sell goods in the USA, including international sellers of consumer goods such as NikeIN AdidasIN Uniqlo AND Apple Incdue to a mix of relatively cheap labor costs and supporting government policies.
According to the annual report from Nike earnings for 2024, factory in Vietnam produced 50% of the footwear and 28% of clothing products, while Adidas acquires 39% of his items from Vietnam last year. Apple too expanded his production presence in Vietnam In recent years, with about 20% of iPad production and 90% of the assembly of Apple wearing products, such as Apple Watch, which takes place in Vietnam.
Since the last US-China trade war broke out during Trump's first term in 2018, many Chinese producers also moved its production to Vietnam to avoid American tariffs.
Vietnamese trade surplus in goods from the US Record level of $ 123.5 billion Last year, of less than $ 40 billion in 2018, in accordance with American data, which marked Vietnam goods exported to the US to $ 136.6 billion in 2024.
According to OCBC Bank, new fees announced by Trump last week may reduce the total export of goods in Vietnam by up to 40%. The bank cited data from the Vietnamese Customs Office, which showed that Vietnam goods to the USA were about 30% of total trading.
New duties can also reduce the charm of the establishment of a production base in the country, charging direct foreign investment flowing to Vietnam.
But as it often happens International trade statisticsThere are discrepancies between the official numbers reported by the US and Vietnam, partly due to differences in the methods of valuation.
Nguyen Thu Oanh, head of the inflation department at the statistical office, Said Sunday Bloomberg has announced that new US tariffs can lead some foreign companies to transfer part of their production from Vietnam.
“Mutual tariffs for ASEAN and India will harm the strategy” China+1 “, which has been benefiting to the region for several years,” said economists from OCBC Bank, but “global supply chains adapts”.
Hard path to the transaction
In addition to China, Vietnam will face a more difficult path to achieve a contract with Washington than others in Asia, said Chetan Ahya, Asia Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley, partly thanks to his large trade surplus from the USA and its role in facilitating the redirection of the chains of supplying Chinese companies.
After Telephone with Trump last FridayThe head of the Vietnam party to Lam said in reading that the country is willing to remove all fees on the US imports, increasing the tariff rate to 0%if Trump's administration does the same for Vietnamese exports to the USA
He also repeated Hanoi's involvement to increase the US import in order to limit bilateral trade surplus and encouraged American companies to increase investment in Vietnam.
In response to questions about the zero Vietnam offer, the White House trade advisor Peter Navarro said It wasn't enough To justify canceling new fees.
“Let's take Vietnam. When they come to us and say,” We'll go to zero tariffs “, it doesn't mean nothing to us, because the non -dariff fraud counts,” said Navarro CNBC “Squawk box. “
Examples of “Frands in a state of niabra” cited by Navarro included Chinese products led by Vietnam, theft of intellectual property and value added tax, which Trump criticized as hidden trade barriers.
As part of the universal “mutual tariffs” by Trump, Hanoi tried to offer commercial compromises, including Lowering the tariffs to several American products, such as liberated natural gas and cars and approval STARLINK satellite satellite website attempt in the country.
China took revenge with 34% of an additional tariff for all American goodsBut most Asian economies decided to refrain from direct retaliation.
Negotiations with the United States from the US cannot “bring the desired results, especially for countries with a large commercial surplus from the USA, such as Vietnam,” said Michael Wan, Senior Asian economist at Mufg Bank.
He said that while negotiations in Vietnam with the Trump administration can “wear some fruits”, it is unlikely to offer the US tariffs “drastically” from the proposed levels.
China's retaliation has complicated negotiations in Vietnam with us, because decision -makers are worried that Chinese companies can use more mild Vietnam tariffs, said Wan.