The threat of growing tariff rates for US imports can tempt the economic trajectory of countries such as Vietnam.
Direct foreign investment in Vietnam has increased in recent years when companies are looking for risk management methods resulting from production in China. Vietnam received about USD 18.5 billion for direct foreign investment, in accordance with Documents of the World Bank It dates back to 1970.
46% of the “mutual” tariff rate of President Donald Trump for goods imported to the USA from Vietnam briefly entered into force on April 9. Later on the same day, Trump reset tariff rates for products from countries such as Vietnam up to 10%. Countries subject to higher tariffs are less than 90 days negotiate better trade conditions with a white house.
“Vietnam is very sensitive,” said Tuan Chu, program manager at the University of Rmit in Vietnam.
According to Cullen Hendrix, a senior member of Economics of the international economy of the Peterson Institute for Peterson Institute for International Economics, potentially increased Vietnam Vietnam indicators at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, it is partly based, it is partly based on the trade surplus USA. Vietnam's commercial surplus amounted to around $ 123.5 billion in 2024 and USD 39.5 billion in 2018According to the office of the universal census.
Part of the growing Vietnam exports to the USA may be Chinese products that have been redirected to avoid higher tariff rates. This evidence results from commercial data According to the research article from Harvard Business School, collected after 2018, collected as a US-China trade war.
Edmund Malesky, a professor of political sciences of Duke University and one of the authors of Harvard's article, estimates that 84% increase in production activities in Vietnam was a production of added value. “But there is a smaller part, maybe 16%, depending on how you measure it, what has changed, which has become a concern for the United States,” said Malesky.
Companies can change their international supply chains if higher tariff rates occur in relation to US imports.
“This is part of the Whack-A-Mole global game,” said Hendrix.