A few years ago, the scenario in which Canadian and other NATO troops practiced in Latvia last week could seem unthinkable – even disturbing for an undisturbed eye.
In a steeped muddy training range in winter, several dozen kilometers beyond Riga, about 3,400 soldiers from 14 nations-the leadership of the Canadian brigade commander-they threw how they would conduct the last defense of the capital of Latvia.
The raw scenario opened 30 days to the hypothetical invasion of the Baltic State by a warring neighbor about a forgotten, false name.
Everyone knew that Russia was “enemy”, but no one said his name.
The exercise developed in the same week as relations between the United States and Ukraine, were thrown into deep freezing ugly, television screaming match With the commitment of President Donald Trump, vice president of JD Vance and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an oval office.
The concept that Washington moves more to Moscow's orbit is felt in Latvia. The country was witnessing Russian bases in the Baltic – after emptying soldiers and equipment because of the war of Ukraine – now they are supplemented and supplemented.
All three Baltic States – Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania – increased the fortification of their borders with Russia. But he is nervous whether the United States honors the Holy Grail of the NATO Treaty, art. 5, which determines the attack on one member, is an attack on everyone.
The Minister of Defense of Latvian Andris Spruds said CBC News in a recent, exclusive interview that his country would like to see more NATO soldiers on Earth and more military equipment prepared in a small nation for the necessary meals that will be introduced during the crisis.
“There is a room and space for an even (larger) and stronger presence,” said Spruds in an interview, which was broadcast on Saturday CBC radio House.
“We must remember that the Latvian border is the external border of the European Union and NATO. So it's not just about protecting Latvia and the protection of the region. It is about protecting the eastern flank, it is also about protecting NATO and EU allies. “
The Western Military Alliance organized the defense of Latvia as part of an international division, which includes a brigade led by Canada. The division leads through the Danish generation of major. Jette Albinus, who also said CBC News in a recent interview that the suspension of weapons – or full peace settlements in Ukraine – will allow Russia to pay full attention to the Baltic region.
In mid -February. The Danish Institute of International Studies has published a report that warned that Russia would probably continue the military accumulation in both the Baltic and Arctic regions.
Albinus claims that Denmark Intelligence Service estimated that peace in Ukraine – although welcome and necessary – would increase the level of threat on the border with the Baltic States.
“There is no doubt … that the threat here will increase,” said Albinus.
“It just makes me raise my sleeves and prepare even better … You have to show them that you are ready to fight and defend Latvia and Balów.”
Moving soldiers in crisis
The question that persecuted NATO military planners since the alliance soldiers were first placed in the Baltic Sea in 2017, is whether the contingents can be strengthened and provided with a crisis.
In the current defense plan of Latvia in Canada, Denmark and Sweden, they rush additional soldiers to the country. The question is: can they get there with Russian submarines in the Baltic Sea, or maybe airspace?
Albinus said he was more sure that the sea belts would remain open now when Sweden and Finland have joined NATO.
Other commanders told other ally commanders that there are also plans to strengthen balletics via the railway system.
Colonel Henrik Rossahl, commander of the Swedish mechanized battalion, who is part of the brigade led by Canada, said that his goal is to make sure that soldiers who are already arranged are able to stick and fight in the event of invasion.
However, he said that Sweden – like Canada – is in the process of rebuilding its army.
“Am I confident? I would say it, “said Rossahl CBC News. “We will have problems to bring the main strength (to Latvia) because, as we say, we build our national defense forces.”
He added, however, that the question about meals is something that the political and military management of his country was better prepared to answer.
Commander of the Canadian army, General Mike Wright, who was in Latvia to exercise, said that he was “satisfied” with the level of preparation by the Canadian brigade and noticed that Germany has a brigade in Lithuania, and Great Britain leads separately in Estonia.
“We're not alone,” said Wright. “We are part of this deterrence and collective defense on the Eastern Flanka NATO.”
Last year, the European Policy Analysis Center (CEPA) examined what the war in Bałatyki would look like and how it would play geopolitically.
The report stated that Russia would probably be able to achieve quick profits in the Baltic region, even in the case of NATO meals, and the Kremlin may, within three days of opening hostilities, resort to blackmail, informing “NATO that every attempt to re -violate Russian Baltic circuits will cause a nuclear reaction.”
Considering the threats of Trump's administration to take over Greenland “in one way or another” and probably the Canada annex through economic force, a flail-like scenario-like a war game in Latvia-it doesn't seem too far-reaching anymore.