When Donald J. Trump was the last president of the United States, the wealthy Gulf monarchies had a largely harmonious relationship with his administration. As Mr Trump prepares to return to the White House, the leaders of those Gulf countries have generally welcomed him back.
But this time, the Gulf states and Mr. Trump appear to be at odds on a number of cornerstone issues, such as Israel and Iran. Differences over energy policies can also be a source of friction.
Major tensions or rifts with US Gulf allies are unlikely. But Mr. Trump will face a region that has seen drastic changes since the creation of Israel The war in Gaza in response Hamas-led attack October 7, 2023According to Israeli officials, about 1,200 people were killed and about 250 people were taken hostage.
The war in Gaza has engulfed the entire region, with at least 45,000 dead, according to health officials in the enclave. In Lebanon, the Iranian-backed Hezbollah armed group was defeated as a result of more than a year of fighting against Israel. Rebels in Syria overthrew the regime Bashar Assad.
And now Mr. Trump fills his cabinet Iran hawks and Israel's staunch defenders and Gulf leaders are openly calling for a softer stance on Iran and a tougher stance on Israel.
They also called on the US to engage with the region.
For now, the Trump administration appears eager to reach out to the Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
In December, Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump's pick for Middle East envoy, was in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the emirate. Attended the Bitcoin conference with the president-elect's son, Eric Trump. He also went to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where he met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Axios informed.
Here's a closer look at the challenges Mr. Trump faces in managing the evolving relationship with traditional Gulf allies.
Engagement in the Middle East
In the Gulf, one of the clearest calls for Mr. Trump to eschew an isolationist agenda came from Prince Turki al-Faisal, the former head of Saudi Arabia's intelligence service.
one An open letter to the President-elect of the United States published in November In The National, a newspaper published in Abu Dhabi, Prince Turki talked about the assassination attempt against Mr. Trump and said that he believed that “God spared your life” so that Mr. Trump could continue the work he had started in the Middle East. in the first period. That mission was to bring 'PEACE with capital letters,'” he said.
During his first term in office, Mr. Trump's administration mediated The Abrahamic Covenantswhich saw several Arab countries establish relations with Israel.
A few days later, Prince Turkey's advisor Enver Gargash delivered a similar message Sheikh Mohammed bin ZayedPresident of the UAE at a conference in Abu Dhabi.
According to Mr. Gargash, while the Gulf is surrounded by an increasingly turbulent region, American leadership and partnership remain essential. “We need strong leadership that balances humanitarian concerns with strategic interests,” he said.
It will be tougher against Israel
The most striking shift in messaging in the Gulf in Israel came from the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, the crown prince. Prince Mohammed, who recently spoke at the Arab League summit in Riyadh, called Israel's military campaign in Gaza for the first time. “genocide”.
Before the Gaza war broke out in October 2023, Saudi Arabia appeared to be on the verge of establishing diplomatic relations with Israel, without fulfilling its long-standing precondition – the creation of a Palestinian state. Such an agreement would reshape the Middle East.
Under one plan, Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel in exchange for stronger defense ties with the United States and American support for Saudi Arabia's civilian nuclear program.
But Prince Mohammed's latest comments suggest any deal is a long way off.
In addition to his statement about the genocide in Gaza, he also announced this Saudi Arabia will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel until the creation of a Palestinian state. This is still a distant prospect, given the strong opposition to such a state within Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi businessman close to the kingdom's ruling family, said: “I think the crown prince wanted to make his position clear and beyond any doubt.”
The United Arab Emirates, which signed the Abraham Accords, also showed a tough stance against Israel.
UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed told his Israeli counterpart last week that the emirate “will spare no effort to support the Palestinians”.
Despite Saudi Arabia's open stance on the status of the normalization deal, US diplomats have indicated that the kingdom may be open to moving forward privately during a second Trump presidency – provided there is a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and a real Israeli commitment to the deal. The road to Palestinian statehood.
“All of this is ready to go if the opportunity presents itself on a cease-fire in Gaza and a way forward for the Palestinians,” said outgoing US Secretary of State Anthony J. Blinken on Wednesday. “So there's a huge opportunity there.”
Comfort with Iran?
During Mr. Trump's first presidency, both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates defended his administration's hawkish stance against Iran, seeing Tehran as a dangerous rival in the region.
They applauded Mr. Trump He withdrew the United States from the nuclear agreement with Iran and applauded the decision to authorize the assassination Qasim SoleimaniIn January 2020, the general in charge of Iran's militias and proxy forces in the Middle East.
But the dynamics of the region changed after Mr. Trump's first term.
It reached Saudi Arabia and Iran agreement In March 2023, he eased tensions in the Persian Gulf and opened the door to high-level diplomatic contacts.
Bahrain, years later, tension with Iran Proposals to the Iranian governmentKing Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa said there was “no reason to delay” the restoration of diplomatic relations. Small island kingdom too condemned A shadow war between the two countries began last October, when Israel targeted Iran went out into the open with tit-for-tat attacks.
For Saudi Arabia, the goal is clear: to create a stable regional environment consistent with Prince Mohammed's desire to diversify the oil-dependent Saudi economy. For Iran, decades of economic and political isolation and growing internal unrest have made reconciliation with Riyadh a necessity.
There are also signs that Iran may be open to talks with Mr Trump. There are many former officials, experts and newspaper editors in Iran called on the government to publicly contact Mr. Trump.
So far, Mr. Trump also seems open to at least charting a course different from the “maximum pressure” campaign of his first term. Elon Musk, a close adviser to Mr. Trump, in November He met with Iran's ambassador to the UNThis was reported by Iranian officials.
“We have to agree because the consequences are impossible,” Mr. Trump said in September, referring to the threat of Iran getting nuclear weapons.
Possible friction on oil
It is open to the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Mr. Trump's operational approach to diplomacythey could conflict with his economic policies.
His main campaign promise was to increase US oil and gas production, which could hurt Gulf economies.
If the US increases oil production, like Mr. Trump promisedGulf producers will have less room to increase production without causing prices to fall.
“Increased US oil exploration and production will drive down prices and threaten the oil-driven economies of the Gulf,” said Bader al-Saif of London-based research institute Chatham House. final report.
Mr. Trump is also expected to accelerate liquefied natural gas projects, reverse President Biden's permit freeze and increase U.S. exports, particularly to Europe.
Qatar, one of the biggest gas producers along with the US, is likely to be the most affected, but it has so far played down its concerns.