Google's recent announcement regarding Willow's arrivala quantum chip that has been shrunk tendency to error some of its predecessors, is a milestone in the effort to bring quantum computing to the real world, and could change the way we think about the risks associated with cryptocurrencies in the coming years.
Willow's speed is almost incomprehensible – according to Googlecan perform calculations in less than five minutes that would take one of today's fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years to solve. Ten septillions is 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years.
However, until now, the accuracy of quantum computing has also been a major problem, because quantum computing is like a garden hose running at full speed and no one holding it: water flows out quickly, but its target is not always accurate. Willow's combination of speed and accuracy could theoretically provide hackers with the tools to unlock the algorithms on which Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are built.
For now, qubits and bitcoin can coexist
If you don't understand (few people do) what constitutes quantum computing – qubits – Tim Hollebeek, technology strategist at security firm DigiCert, has a simplistic way of thinking about the breakthrough. He says imagine a maze and how a classical computer would try to find its way through the maze from start to finish. It would try one potential path at a time. “A quantum computer would be able to try every path at the same time, which would result in a much faster solution,” Hollebeek said.
While Willow may not be ready for real-world applications however, Willow's speed and accuracy will help pave the way for larger-scale quantum computers.
“Part of the problem with qubits is that they are unstable and cause errors. This chip has significant error correction capabilities, which alleviates some of the problems with qubits,” Hollebeek said.
This means that chips improved after Willow's breakthrough will be able to help hackers attack cryptocurrencies – but at least for now, the concerns are only theoretical.
“Quantum computers could theoretically solve this problem much faster and pose a threat to today's cryptographic algorithms if a quantum computer with enough qubits can be developed,” Hollebeek said. However, he added that the real reason why it's easier to breathe today if you own cryptocurrencies is simple. “None of these exist today and are not expected for at least the next 5, 10, 15 years,” he said, with the fastest five-year timeline dependent on unforeseen technological breakthroughs.
Decades of advantage over cryptocurrencies
A Google spokesperson told CNBC that Willow and cryptocurrencies can coexist. “The Willow chip is not capable of breaking modern cryptography,” he said, adding that Google also believes that quantum technology providing such capabilities is still too late.
In fact, according to Park Feierbach, an expert in decentralized finance technology who is the CEO of Radiant Commons, even if Willow was able to drastically increase the speed at which crypto could be cracked, it would still take several times the age of the universe to achieve a quantum effect . chip to do this. According to NASA, the age of the universe is 13.7 billion years.
“There is almost no reason to use Willow in this technology in a way that could provide possible progress. It just would take too long anyway,” Feierbach said.
“It is estimated that we are at least 10 years away from cracking RSA, and it will take about 4 million physical qubits,” said a Google spokesperson. RSA is an encryption system used in cryptocurrencies.
By comparison, Google processors currently operate at a scale of about 100 physical qubits.
“Quantum safe” algorithms.
A Google spokesperson stressed that the timeline of quantum discoveries is widely shared and Willow is not changing it.
“Google is implementing our action plan,” he said. “The security community has long been aware of the expected timeline for breaking asymmetric encryption and is working to define standards and collaboratively implement new algorithms that will be resistant to attacks from both classical and quantum computers,” the spokesperson added.
Indeed, Hollebeek claims that the crypto industry is working on “quantum-secure” cryptocurrencies.
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has published several quantum-secure algorithms that are resistant to attacks by future quantum computers, Hollebeek said, and NIST has a roadmap for governments and industry to implement these algorithms to ensure citizen security and trade secrets.
“Google and other industry leaders supported standardization and experimented with algorithms in the draft,” a Google spokesperson said.
Despite how effective quantum is at unlocking algorithms (traditional cryptographic equations based on factoring huge prime numbers), it is not infallible, and that is where the hope lies in quantum-secure cryptography.
“They're really good at some things, but not everything,” Hollebeek said, noting that breaking conventional asymmetric cryptography just happens to be one of the things they're really good at. “Fortunately, there are other hard math problems that they don't do well at, and asymmetric cryptography can be updated to use these hard math problems instead of factoring,” he said.
Taqi Race, assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, said existing cryptocurrencies will have to evolve to fend off qubits. “As the potential for quantum computers to break existing cryptography becomes increasingly concerning, new cryptocurrencies specifically designed to be quantum secure could be developed. These new quantum cryptocurrencies would integrate PQC, cryptographic algorithms that are resistant to the computing power of quantum computers, Raza said.
Jeremy Allaire, co-founder, president and CEO of digital currency company Circle, told CNBC last week in an interview that the risks are real, but his view into the future remains focused on opportunities that will evolve. “The bottom line is that quantum cryptography means you can more easily unlock things that had bad old locks, but you can also make better locks,” Allaire said. “So quantum cryptocurrency – this quantum is actually going to be a huge turbocharger for crypto computing, crypto applications and cryptocurrencies.”
Raza believes that ultimately the more radical changes brought about by quantum computing will happen outside of cryptocurrencies. Breakthroughs will make devices and software faster, revolutionize artificial intelligence, and improve data security with ultra-secure encryption methods. Raza said there will be advances in computing, healthcare, energy, and security in everyday life, and as a result, we shouldn't think about the crypto industry in isolation while these changes are still unfolding. “They will probably change industries,” he said.