Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to have given up. After more than a year of refusing to accept an end to the war in Gaza, he is now pushing a to stop the fire that – the mediators insist – will do the same.
Netanyahu's government met on Friday to approve the dealwhich may include a prisoner-for-prisoner exchange, Israel's gradual withdrawal from Gaza and an end to the destructive war Israel has unleashed on the Palestinians.
The inauguration will begin on Sunday, and that is when the criticism of the Israeli Prime Minister is expected to begin as he faces criticism from his own government. That opposition is reversing the lines he has long insisted on: there is no end to the war without the destruction of Hamas.
Far-right Defense Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has proudly announced that he has used his power to block any release agreement from happening in the past year, has declared the deal on the table “bad” and insisted that it is his party that will do it. leave the government if it is fulfilled.
But it may not be enough to topple Netanyahu's government. Ben-Gvir needs the support of finance minister Bezalel Smotrich and his Religious Zionism party. Smotrich appears to be willing to continue the deal but only in its first phase, which would see the release of some Israeli prisoners. After that, religious Zionism has said that its members will stop leaving the government unless the war in Gaza – which has killed many people. 46,700 Palestinians – he continues.
The Trump factor
Despite the threat to his authority, Netanyahu appears to be making progress. The start of the proposed ceasefire comes a day before a deadline set by US President-elect Donald Trump, with Monday being the opening day.
The Israeli right saw Trump – a pro-Israel Republican who wants to bring a number of politicians with strong ties to the Israeli establishment into his administration – as their man, a president who would look the other way as the group realizes its dreams. building illegal settlements in Gaza and oppressing its people.
Right now that doesn't seem to be the case, and Trump has emphasized that he wants the war to end before he takes office.
Although at first reading that could be negative for Netanyahu, the suggestion that the Trump administration could force his hand to be politically useful to the Israeli prime minister in the short term, and allow him to manage in the future.
“This may be more than many think,” said Mairav Zonszein, an Israel expert at the International Crisis Group, suggesting that the hand of Israel's long-serving leader cannot be easily forced.
“By agreeing now, Netanyahu can buy himself more freedom to take action in the West Bank and determine any acceptable future for Gaza,” he said, referring to Israel's right-wing plans to annex the Palestinian territory, which is dotted with dots. and Israeli settlements, which are illegal under international law.
“Everyone knew that, at some point, the hostages would have to be exchanged. This was always the case. For many people, this is not a security issue. The security issue for many is who will rule in Gaza,” he said, referring to the third phase of the ceasefire agreement, before saying that by agreeing to an end to the war now, Netanyahu can be sure of the US's best interests. meet Gaza in the future.
Political facts
Netanyahu has been closely allied with right-wing members of his government since he took office at the end of 2022. It was Ben-Gvir and Smotrich who supported Netanyahu when others on the Israeli right abandoned him on his corruption charges. and unpopularity among large sections of the Israeli population.
Without them, he could not hold the governing coalition together, and without them, the logic goes, his government could fall, and with every opportunity to defend himself from impeachment.
But Netanyahu, who is known as the ultimate survivalist, seems to have another way of surviving.
Many people in his government support the ceasefire, including the Orthodox religious community. Critics also said he was willing to give Netanyahu a safety net to reach a deal.
The prime minister has been keenly aware of the Israeli public's feelings, and, experts said, he may have realized that sentiment is now more open to an agreement that would see the return of the captives to their homes and an end to it. war.
It helps Israel to claim that it has reimposed sanctions and that its enemies – including Hamas, the Lebanese group Hezbollah and especially Iran – have been severely targeted.
But, Israeli political analyst Ori Goldberg said, the success of geopolitical victories has given way to legitimacy and let the war end.
“Nobody's really celebrating,” Goldberg said. “Everyone knew this had to come. The Israelis have been living for the past 15 months. Life has been difficult for many Israelis, not as difficult as we have made it for the Palestinians, but difficult.”
“For 15 months, we've been told we're close to victory, but we've done nothing but destruction and killing,” Goldberg added. “We are tired. Don't get me wrong – most people would still wipe out Gaza if it guaranteed security – but we've been doing our best, and we're not there yet.”
“The Israelis are finished,” he continued. “Fortunately, those first six weeks should be enough to build motivation to settle.”
Accounting
Therefore, Netanyahu can take advantage of public opinion and present himself as the one who ended the war and achieve several goals before new elections, earning himself another political opportunity.
But for the Israeli community, there is a price for fighting at that level freedom groups known as genocide in addition to the captives captured in Gaza, soldiers returning from Gaza and Lebanon in coffins, and the isolation of Israel from various countries.
In fact, for many observers, Israel's withdrawal from Gaza is the furthest thing from the country that existed before the Hamas-led invasion on October 7, 2023. which killed 1,139 people.
In the war that followed, the right wing of Israeli politics charged that the reach of the security forces had gone beyond what many had previously considered.
In May, a paper by two prominent Israeli scholarsEugene Kandel and Ron Tzur, said that the reason for the division was caused by the war in Gaza and the efforts of the Netanyahu government to free itself from Gaza. to supervise the courts“there is a high probability that Israel will not exist as an independent Jewish state in the next few decades.”
“Of course, there has been corruption in Israel,” said Dr Guy Shalev, head of Physicians for Human Rights Israel, who has written about the denial of medical aid and torture of Palestinians.
“The decline in people's quality of life, especially Palestinian quality of life, which was not very important before the war, has been impressive,” Shalev said.
“The loss of life on this scale and the government's disregard for the lives of (Israeli) captives undermined what we call in Hebrew, 'arvut hadadit', which means the sense of responsibility that binds all Jews,” Shalev added. “I think that really, if Palestinian life is empty, then all life is empty.”