President Donald Trump's decision to stop all US assistance to Ukraine is a bitter blow – not only for Kiev, but also for European allies who lobby the US administration to continue their support.
This is not the first time the United States has detained military assistance. Republicans in Congress have blocked the largest military aid tranche for Ukraine of Joe Biden in the summer of 2023.
At that time, Ukraine almost managed to expel its existing ammunition reserves with the help of Europe.
The Congress has finally approved the 60 billion pounds of assistance package in the spring of 2024. It was just in time – Ukraine struggled to give up the renovated Russian offensive in Harciv. The arrival of the delayed American weapons helped to turn the tide.
As in 2024, months may have passed before the effects of cutting off US help – at least in terms of ammunition and hardware, may have been felt. European nations are slowly increasing the production of artillery shells. Overall, Europe now provides Ukraine with 60 percent of its help – more than the United States.
However, US military support is still vital to Ukraine. A Western employee recently described it as a “cream” in terms of weapons.
Ukraine's ability to protect its people and cities strongly relies on complex air defense systems in the United States – such as patriotic batteries and Nasams – jointly developed with Norway.
The US gave Ukraine to strike long distance – with Himari and Atakm missiles. The United States has limited its use in Russia, but they are still vital for achieving high value goals in occupied territories.
This is not only quality, but also quantity. As the most powerful military in the world, he was able to send hundreds of unnecessary hum and armored vehicles -numbers that the smaller European armies could never coincide.
The absence of some of this help may take time to filter up to the front line. But there may be more tremendous immediate impact, not least in terms of intelligence sharing.
No nation can match the United States in terms of cosmic observation, intelligence and communications. And it is not only provided by US military, but also trading companies.
Get the Elon Musk satellite communication network. Every Ukrainian position I have visited on the front line has a dish with star ties.
They are used to retrieve the most recent information to the battlefield. They are essential for the coordination of artillery and drones.
In the past, the Pentagon admits that it finances this rescue line. Given that Elon Musk is a key figure in the US administration, it seems very unlikely to be ready to take the bill now. He is also a harsh critic of Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski.
Will they prevent the United States from preventing European countries from sending their equipment to the United States to Ukraine? When Europe wanted to provide the US F-16 to Ukraine, he first had to receive Washington's approval.
And then what about the maintenance of US equipment supplied? The United States also trains Ukrainian forces and then helps them maintain the equipment provided by the United States.
Biden has canceled the restrictions of American performers working in Ukraine at the end of his term. In particular, the F-16 Jets need engineers and spare parts to continue working.
Trump's decision to pause can be many in Ukraine and then seems unpleasant. But it also obviously has a political purpose to force them to the negotiating table more recently.
The hope of European allies is that it will be just a pause. Without US support, Ukraine will find an even more dry struggle for survival.