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It is not yet clear whether the Gaza ceasefire will take effect. But, if the war really ends, what has it said about the world?
For Israel, the impact appears to be twofold. The country's leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, can say that he has turned a national crisis into a strategic victory. Hamas has been destroyed, if not completely destroyed. Hizbollah, the Lebanese rebel group that has become the most armed and threatening group in Iran's “axis of resistance”, has also been weakened. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct fire. But most of Iran's missiles have failed to reach the defenses of Israel and its allies – and the Islamic Republic looks to be in a weaker position than it has been in decades.
At the strategic level, Israel emerges from this conflict as a major power in the Middle East – and its military deterrence has been fully restored and its enemies are in chaos. But on the contrary, Israel has suffered a lot of damage to the name. About 46,000 people are believed to have been killed during the Israeli invasion and Gaza is in ruins. Netanyahu has been indicted by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes – putting him in the same legal bracket as Vladimir Putin. As the leader of Russia, Netanyahu will now find it very difficult to travel internationally.
Israel's popularity has declined in international opinion polls. Young people – even in the US – are now very hostile to the country. The Pew google in April he concluded: “Younger Americans are more sympathetic to the Palestinian people than to the Israeli people.” A third of adults under 30 say their sympathies lie entirely or mostly with the Palestinians, compared to 14 percent who support Israel.
Israelis hope that attitudes will soften over time – especially if peace returns. Netanyahu and his allies believe that friends in the White House will be more important than enemies on American campuses.
But Trump's friendship may not be unconditional. There is visible shock on Israel's right that the incoming US administration has put its weight behind the cease-fire and hostage-release deal negotiated by the Biden White House. The hope in Israel that Trump will give him a completely free hand to deal with the Palestinians, as he sees fit, has taken over.
Trump's decision to enforce peace now may indicate two main things. The first is his desire to take credit for the deal and hostage release. The second is that – while Israel enjoys loyal support in the Republic – it is not the only important country in the region. During his first presidency, Trump's first overseas trip was to Saudi Arabia.
The incoming Trump administration is likely to advance the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia – which was a major goal of the Biden administration. Presumably, this provides a scintilla of hope for the Palestinian people, because it is widely believed that the Saudi value normalized would be a significant progress for the Palestinian state. However, that may be a price the Israelis are not willing to pay, which could mean the Saudi-Israeli deal remains a surprise.
The war in Gaza also had global, as well as regional significance. One of the reasons why the US and its western allies have been reluctant to put much pressure on Israel is their belief that Iran is a common enemy. In the past year, western officials have been more vocal about their belief that they are now fighting a global struggle against an “opposition group” made up of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.
By weakening Iran, Israel has weakened that line. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria was, in large part, the result of Israel's brutal attack on Hizbollah, which was Bashar al-Assad's main ally.
Assad's fall from power was a significant blow to both Iran and Russia, which had intervened militarily on his behalf. Russia has been using Syria as a base for power projection and now it needs to back off. Surprisingly, Israel itself has had a more cautious response to the fall of Assad than many in the west, fearing that jihadist forces will move into the power vacuum in Syria.
The ultimate casualty of the war in Gaza has been the “rules-based international order” advocated by the Biden administration. Sympathy and support for Israel after the October 7 attack made the US tolerate frequent violations of international humanitarian law during Israel's attack on Gaza. Restoring a rules-based order may be as difficult as rebuilding Gaza.