What the US and Iran do afterwards can be even more important

For decades, the United States and Iran have been carefully avoiding a dangerous red line into a direct military confrontation.

An US president, after another, has linger from the deployment of his military forces against the Islamic Republic of fear of sinking the United States into the potentially the most dangerous war in the Middle East of all.

Now the commander-in-chief, who promised to be President of Peace, crossed this Rubicon with direct military strikes of Nuclear sites of Tehran-the most follow-up in the second term of president, who was proud of the violation of all the old rules.

This is an unprecedented moment that provokes an alarm in the capitals around the world.

Iran's next move can be even more important. His 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatola Ali Hamenei, who is now reported to be sheltering in a bunker, has spent nearly four decades cautiously playing a long play against his most powerful enemy to defend his most important asset-Islamic Republic.

If he does too little, he will lose his face; If he did too much, he could lose everything.

“Hamenei's next moves will be the most next because of his own survival, but also how he will handle history,” says Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Think Tank, Chatham House.

“His wrapped Halis is potentially more powerful than Homeini drinks in 1988,” she continues, citing the reluctant decision of Iran's first revolutionary leader to accept a bitter ceasefire in Iran-Iraq's devastating war.

Over the last ten days, intense Israeli strikes have caused more damage to Iran's command and military hardware than his eight -year war with Iraq, which is still casting a long shadow in Iranian society.

Israeli attacks have eliminated many in the best ranks of Iran's security forces, along with leading nuclear scientists. The entry of America into this conflict now has intensified pressure.

The Islamic Revolutionary Corps of Security (IRGC), founded after the 1979 Iran revolution, is a challenging warning of revenge against the United States, which will leave it with “lasting regret”.

But behind the sharp war of the words, there are emergency calculations to avoid a calm mistake.

“This is not a war that Iran wants,” says Hamidresa Aziz of the Middle East Council on global issues. “But we already see arguments from the regime supporters, which, regardless of the degree of actual damage that the United States may be inflicted, the image of Iran as a strength (s) as regional power is shaken so dramatically (that) that it requires an answer.”

However, every answer is risky. The direct attack on one of about 20 US bases in the Middle East or any of more than 40,000 US troops is likely to cause great revenge in the United States.

The closure of the Hormuz Strait, the strategic water road to the fifth of the global oil trafficking, can also cause a back strike by disrupting Arab allies in the region, as well as China, the main customer of Iran's own oil. Western Navy can also be attracted to protect this basic “suffocation point” and prevent significant economic shocks.

And what Iran had considered his “forward protection”, his network of proxies and partners in the region were weakened or deleted by Israeli attacks and killings in the last 20 months of war.

It is unclear whether there is an acceptable threshold so that Iran can see that it returns the fire without provoking the anger of America, which would allow both sides to pull off the edge.

This excruciating relationship had been tested at least once before. Five years ago, when President Trump ordered the assassination of IRGC commander Casem Sollemans with a drone strike in Baghdad, many feared he would cause a vicious spiral. But Iran telegraphs its counterattack through Iraqi officials, directing sections of US bases that avoid killing US staff or causing significant damage.

But that moment is far more.

President Trump, who has repeatedly expressed his preference to “make a deal with Iran,” not “bombarding hell from him,” now looks firm in the corner of Israel. He described Iran as “Middle East's bully,” bent down to build a nuclear bomb, a conclusion that is not shared by previous US intelligence assessments.

Intelligence teams are now analyzing in detail the results of what the Pentagon says is “the biggest B-2 operational blow in US history.” He caused “extremely severe damage and destruction” of the main nuclear sites of Iran in Nathan, Isfahan and Fordou.

Only “Bomb-destructive bombs He could penetrate the Fordou facility, buried deep in a mountain.

President Trump now calls on Iran to “come to peace.”

But now Iran also views the US diplomatic path as a show. In Geneva on Friday, where Foreign Minister Abbas Araragchi met with his European counterparts, a difficult message was reported that Washington expects Tehran to reduce his nuclear enrichment to zero.

This is a request for Iran to reject as a violation of its sovereign right to enrich Uranus as part of a civil nuclear program.

He is now considering the diplomatic efforts of President Trump, including five rounds of mainly indirect conversations conducted by his special envoy Steve Vikof, for complex fraud.

Israel unleashed its military campaign two days before the sixth round of mask negotiations. The United States entered the war two days after President Trump said he wanted to allow a two -week window to give diplomacy a chance.

Now it is said that it will not return to the negotiation table while Israeli and American bombs are still falling.

“It was not Iran, but the United States, who betrayed diplomacy,” Aragchi told a press conference in Istanbul. During this, he met with foreign ministers of the 57-member organization of the Islamic Conference, which condemned Israel's aggression and expressed his “great concern about this dangerous escalation”.

Iran also tried to emphasize pressure against its territory, which violates the UN Charter, as well as warnings from the International Atomic Energy Agency that nuclear facilities should never be attacked, “regardless of context or circumstances.”

European leaders are also calling for an emergency de -escalation and a path to restricting Iran's nuclear program through mediation, not missiles.

But they also repeat that Iran cannot be allowed to acquire a nuclear bomb. They look at the 60 percent enrichment of uranium in Tehran, in an easy range of 90 percent weapons, as a sinister indication of his intentions.

“Iran is likely to underestimate the damage to its sites and insists that its nuclear program has experienced these unprecedented attacks,” says Eli Geranmay, the deputy manager of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

“The United States can exaggerate the damage, so Trump may ask for a military victory without being dragged into further strikes.”

President Trump will be withdrawn in one direction by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, whose great forces will continue to attack Iran to cause even more damage, causing even more Iranian deliveries.

But the US leader is also subjected home by legislators who say he acted without congress permission, and supporters who believe he has violated his promise to protect America from prolonged wars.

And this moment is expected to concentrate the minds of Iranian solutions to how to restore deterrence while trying to avoid being targeted.

“This is the great irony,” warns Da Geranmay. “Although Trump has tried to remove the nuclear threat from Iran, he has already made Iran much more likely to become a nuclear state.”

Leading image: A demonstrator holds a portrait of Iran's supreme leader. Photography Credit: Reuters

BBC Indepth Whether it is the home of the website and the application for the best analysis, with new perspectives that dispute the assumptions and the deep reporting of the most large problems of the day. And we show content that provokes the thought of All BBC Sounds and Iplayer. You can send us your feedback to the Indepth section by clicking the button below.