Why coup leader BRCS clotar Oligui ngema accepts democracy

Just over 19 months after the bloodless coup, which ended more than five decades of government from Bongo's family, Gabon's people are about to head to the ballot boxes to choose a new head of state – transferring a trend that sees military leaders elsewhere in Africa clinging to power.

The prevailing favorite in the race on Saturday is the man who has led this calm Putsh and has dominated the political scene since then, Bris clot Oligui Ngma.

After abandoning the tiredness of the soldier and his military status in favor of a politician's claim, this highly articulated former commander of the elite Republican Guard is facing seven other candidates.

Popular in popularity among the population, relieved to get rid of the dynastic rule – and assisted by the electoral regulations that disqualified some key competitors – the 50 -year -old seems to be almost certain that he will provide an outspoken majority at the first vote.

His slogan of the campaign – using his initials “C'Bon” – is a game of French words “c'est bon”, which means “good”.

His chances of avoiding the leakage of the second round are supported by the fact that his main contender is one of the rare figures of a higher political or civil society, who did not gather to his cause, the last prime minister of the old regime, Alen-Claude were from NZE, known for his initiations ACBBN.

The victory will bring a seven -year term and resources to implement the development and modernization of the pace reform, for which the rulers of African countries, who were crisis, could not even dream.

With only 2.5 million people, Gabon is an established oil producer and the world's second largest exporter in the world.

Its territory, which is sitting on the equator, covers some of the most bio -de -deed tracts of the tropical forests of the Congo The Pool.

And besides the harsh repression after the election in the capital, Libreville, in 2016, the country enjoys the most peaceful story that contrasts with conflicts and instability that have affected many regional neighbors.

Oligui NGUEMA and its Republican Guards did not meet resistance when they took power on August 30, 2023, just hours after electoral authorities had taken on the air waves in the middle

It was difficult to see this official result as credible. Ali Bongo, who inherited his father Omar in 2009, only pulled out a narrow and very contested victory in the previous poll in 2016.

When he suffered a stroke while visiting Saudi Arabia two years later and embarked on a careful gradual recovery, there was a widespread popular sympathy.

But the mood shifted after he decided to stand for a third term, despite his apparently fragile state of health, it nourishes his widespread outrage at the alleged backstage influence and ambitions in French-born Sylvia and his son Nourredin Bongo Valentin.

Military Peace interference to prevent the regime from continuing, arrest Sylvia and Nurdin and Restricting Ali in the imposition of retirement in his private villaIt caused spontaneous celebrations among the many Gabanski who were tired of this apparently motionless dynasty.

And the coup was greeted with relief even by most administrative, political and civil society Elite.

Oligui NGUEMA takes advantage of an advantage by turning to the construction of a wide base of support for its transition regime. He brought former government figures, opponents and critical voices of civil society so far in the structure of power or institutions such as the appointed Senate.

Political detainees were released, although Ali Bongo's wife and son remain in place in anticipation of a lawsuit on corruption.

It does not resort to the type of repression of disagreement or media freedom that have become a routine instrument of other military leaders of Francophone Africa, Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger.

At the diplomatic front, in accordance with the persistent anti -Western posture, adopted by the regimes in West Africa, Oligui Ngema sends senior figures to cultivate international goodwill and to assure Gabon's traditional partners in his determination to restore the civil constitutional government in a strictly restricted clock.

Relations with France, the former colonial power, and previously a close ally of the Bongo regime, are warm.

Recently, the two governments have agreed to turn Camp de Gaulle, the long -standing French base into Gabon, into a new training center that will work together.

Showing a skillfully popular and political touch, the oligui nguema responds to public hunger for a change in acceleration of public affairs and delayed projects.

And during the increasing popular support in Francophone Africa for more visible protection of national interests, his government has acquired Gaboni's assets of several foreign oil companies, including the British Tullow.

To facilitate the limitations of government finance, he borrowed the regional money market, but also tried to reassure international partners.

Much of the $ 520 million (461 million British pounds) raised through the Eurobond in February are used to pay old debt, and the government has also allocated funds to clear some of the overdue liabilities due to the World Bank.

But if he almost certainly, when he is elected Gabon's Head of State on Saturday, Oligui Nguema will face significant challenges.

Such was the hunger of the public for change, which in many ways the transition was the easy part. There is little public pressure that restricts his freedom to maneuver.

There was a broad consensus on the inclusion of a ban on dynastic sequence in the new constitution.

When the Oligui Nguema dumped the concern of some parliamentarians about the concentration of the executive power in the presidency, eliminating the post of Prime Minister, there was a little noise.

But this means that, as we move on, the full burden of responsibility for meeting public expectations will only fall on his shoulders.

Prominent figures of political and civil society, such as opponent-veteran Alexander Baro-Shamberier and Tropical Forest Campaign Mark to feedjoined his transitional administration or political machine, Rassemblet des bâtisseurs (RDB) and can take important roles after the election.

Nevertheless, the focus will be on the oligui nguema itself. And he will face complex challenges.

Gabon has long been positioned as a leader in the preservation of tropical forests and his huge diverse flora and fauna, attracting international praise for her insightful use of climate financing tools in 2023. She has become the first country of the susahara to have a duty to duty for nature.

But this strategic approach must be aligned with economic pressure in order to fully use other natural resources, in particular minerals and oil, and with the needs of rural communities, which seek to protect their hunting and agriculture rights.

The urban population, especially in Libreville – the home of almost half of the country's population – need more jobs and better services, in a country whose record of social development is disappointing given its relative wealth.

Unionist Jean Remy Yama, excluded from the presidential race, as he could not produce his father's birth certificate, a requirement for a nomination, is a figure with a significant next one that can give a voice to popular dissatisfaction.

For oligui nguema, the most difficult job is about to start.

Paul Meli is a consulting contributor to the Africa program in Chatham House in London.