A salesman on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the first session of the new year on January 2, 2025 in New York, USA
Timothy A. Clary AFP Getty images
The United States joining the war between Israel and Iran may seem like a geopolitical inflammatory point that would cause the fall of the markets. Instead, investors largely reject escalation, and many strategists believe that the conflict is concluded – and even stubborn in the case of some risk assets.
Until 9:30 in London on Monday, MSCI World indexwhich follows over a thousand large and medium -sized companies from 23 developed markets, was only 0.1% lower.
European actions limited early losses in a stronger territory trade, with the Pan-European Stoxx 600 slightly higher After sale at Open. American Futures contracts He also marked abovewith Futures contracts related to S&P 500 gaining 0.2%.
Safe assets also recorded a muted answer. Performance on comparative tests 10-year attention scored 2 base points, a Spot Gold Lump 0.2% on trade around USD 3359 per ounce. Safe-Haven French Swiss He was recently seen flat against American dollarWhich On Monday morning it increased compared to several currencies.
In general, market reactions after US strikes were less aggressive, especially compared to just over a week ago, when Israel launched raids against Iran.
“Markets perceive an attack on Iran as a relief with a nuclear threat, which has now went to the region,” said Dan Ives, managing director at Wedbush, adding that he sees the minimum risk of Iran-Israel conflict, spreading to the rest of the region, and consequently more “isolated”.
Although the gravity of the latest events should not be rejected, they are not perceived as a systemic risk for global markets, other industry experts repeated.
On Saturday, the US President Donald Trump he said United States Iran attacked nuclear pages. Traders carefully observe all potential remedies from Iran after American strikes in nuclear facilities.
Potential closure of the strait by Iran
The Minister of Foreign Affairs Iran warned that his country reserved “all options” to defend his sovereignty. According to the Iranian state media, the country's parliament also approved the closing of the Hormuz Strait, a key waterway for global oil trade, with about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products passing through it every day.
“It all depends on how Iran reacts,” said Peter Boockvar, investment director at Bleakley Financial Group. “If they accept the end of their military nuclear desires … This may be the end of the conflict and the markets will be fine,” said CNBC. Boockvar is not of the opinion that Iran will disrupt global oil inventory.
The worst scenario for markets would occur if Iran close the strait, which is unlikely, said Marko Papic, the main strategist in the Geomacro strategy.
“If they do this, oil prices north of $ 100, was taken over by fear and panic, the actions fall by ~ 10% minimum, and investors are in a hurry to safe advice,” he said.
However, the markets are now suppressed, taking into account the “limited tools” that Tehran has at his disposal to take revenge, added Papic.
The idea of closing the Hormuz waterway was a repetitive rhetoric of Iran, but he never worked, and experts emphasized that it was unbelievable.
In 2018, Iran warned that he could block the Hormuz Strait after the US withdrew from the nuclear agreement and restored sanctions. Similar threats were made earlier in 2011 and 2012, when older Iranian officials-then President Vice Mohammad-Reza Rahimi, said that the waterway could be closed if the Western nations impose more sanctions on the export of Iranian oil due to nuclear activities.
“Tehran understands that if you close the strait, retaliation with the US would be fast, criminal and brutal,” added Papic.
In a similar way, the founder of Yardeni Research, Ed Yardeni, said that the latest events did not shocked his belief on the American market.
“Geopolitically, we believe that Trump has just restored the American military scares, thus increasing the credibility of his mantra” peace through strength, “he said, adding that by the end of 2025 it is focused on 6500 on S&P 500.
While predicting geopolitical development in the Middle East is a “treacherous exercise”, Yardeni believes that the region is a “radical transformation” now when Iranian nuclear objects have been destroyed.