Tuesday, astronomers, the asteroid, which was assigned to 2024 YR4, said that the most likely space to influence the world. The object, which was found first in December, is 130 to 300 meters in length, and in 2032 is expected to be very close to the planet. This year is the possibility of affecting the earth on 22 December 22 3.1 percent.
This is more than a threat of an apophis of a larger asteroid found in 2004. Astronomers first calculated the chances of hitting place in 2029 2.7 percent. Then the next observations of the apophila reduced the effects of influence at any time until zero in the next century. But the prospect, was worried for a while.
Although 2024 YR4 is smaller than apophis, an extreme asteroid can still cause great destruction. Much depends on where it will be included in the Earth's atmosphere.
2024 YR4 can create or disassemble a city directly, even if you are not close to eliminate a country. And there is a very delicate chance that it can be. The most estimated track of the object has passed empty oceanBut some Possible places of impact Close to big cities like Bogotá, Lagos and Mumbai.
The kinetic energy of an asteroid is a lawyer for how destructive of its influence. As the asteroids move mainly at the same speed – about 38,000 miles in the hour – the key changing is its mass.
There are only a number of assessments for astronomers with only a handful of observation to trust. “We do not know how tight or porous is, so it is vague, if its mass and therefore the explosion on the surface of the earth or the atmosphere is uncertain,” he said BosloughA physicist in the Los Alamos National Laboratory.
In all cases, “It's worse,” he said, ” Gareth CollinsAn asteroid impact specialist in imperial college london. Small increments in size are translated into giant leaps in destructive potential. This rule When the radius of an asteroid is double, there is eight-more kinetic energy; A 300-meter asteroid will hurt more than 130 meters.
Ingredients are also important. Mainly iron, for example, would be deeply plunged into the atmosphere and an asteroid to deliver A fist that was less injured to the planet. However, 2024 YR4 is statistically similar to being a stone asteroid that is more prone to smaller pieces because it is heated in the atmosphere landing.
But even an airwhere tissue of an asteroid – an airbow – it can be extremely severe.
If the 2024 YR4 Stone and Little Last – 130 feet – If a airbrew is high Kathryn KumamotoHead of the Planetar Defense Program in Livermore National Laboratory.
“The main comparison point for the impact of this greatness is Tunguska,” said Kumamoto. This Tunguska event On 1908, a asteroid similar to 2024 YR4, which was sparse Subar, Siberian's sparse settlement. Unlike a nuclear weapon that destroys a forest, which is twice a forest in the size of New York, created a wave of about 12 megaton.
A 130-meter rock that exploded above the open ocean or closer coast was not like “can cause an important tsunami” Lorien wheela specialist Asteroid threatening Project In the NASA's Ames Research Center in California.
An airburst above a city would be more unpleasant. Windows would explode inside, The handgun produces sprays from the glassAnd the injury to the buildings would be widespread. Some injuries may be a life-threatening.
Asteroids make the angle difference in the atmosphere. If it comes to a bitcan approach the ground before explosion and potentially can be more destroyed. More input gradually angle may result in an explosion at a higher height.
Although the length of 2024 YR4 is 300 meters long, its effects could “cause more severe damage,” Michael AftosmA specialist in asteroid hazard evaluation project.
Such an asteroid makes it more than atmosphere, especially if we fail and the angle of entrance is steep, “said Dr. Kumamoto. “One part can turn it into a relatively integrity ground surface.”
An influence in the remote ocean, which is far from the soil, said Dr. Kumamoto – tall waves to quickly shrink before gaining land. A bounce beside a coastline can cause a tsunami capable of leaving the nearby area.
If this larger version of 2024 YR4 is hit on a solid place, can awaken a crater maybe two-thirds between a mile.
“Asteroid would create a big explosion,” said Dr. Boslough. And the blast wave would be amazingly strong. Multi-storey buildings around the crater buckle and shrinkBridges would end, cars, trees and people will be thrown in all directions. Dr. Boslouwh also noted the potential of a hotoid hot jet of asteroid steam, “which will drop everything and burn everything.
People close to the soil zero will likely die. And the people who are in a distance dozens of dozens are still a thunderstorm and expand the blast wave. “People in the local region would be with serious risk of injuries,” Dr. Kumamoto.
Experts say that 2024 YR4 2024 YR4 will affect the ground in 2032. However, this assortment of this impact is that the planetary defenders are deadly of this asteroid.