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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
The author is a professor at Georgetown University and a senior consultant at the Asia Group. He served on the staff of the US National Security Council from 2009-2015
If Donald Trump's China policy is defined by uncertainty and contradictionXi Jinping's strategy is defined with clarity and determination. The Chinese president's approach to the American president-elect is no secret. Beijing has been very clear since the election about its views and possible responses.
Xi plans not only to respond, but to take advantage of Trump's moves. During Trump's first term, Beijing reacted loudly. Determined not to repeat that. Xi is on the positive side of his preparations and has signed a lot.
Most Chinese analysts were not surprised by Trump's election, linking his return to the global trend of nationalism and nationalism. Beijing believes it now understands Trump's gamesmanship and can control his administration. China's confidence is based on the decision – correct or not – that China in 2025 is different from 2017, and so is the US and the world.
Most Chinese say Xi is politically strong and the economy is independent and resilient, even amid recent challenges. Chinese analysts view the US economy as increasingly weak and American politics as deeply divided. Geopolitically, Beijing sees US influence as declining throughout the world in South Asia – and support for China's vision as it grows.
Xi has already signaled that he will treat his relationship with Trump as a business relationship, albeit Don Corleone-style. He will not accept Trump personally and will retaliate early and hard to generate power. Beijing effectively rejected Trump's invitation for Xi to attend the inauguration.
But Beijing has also signaled it wants dialogue and is open to a deal to avoid new tariffs. However, the Chinese, preferring to use back channels, are struggling to find the right thing to understand what Trump “really wants”. Beijing's basic assumption is that Washington and its allies will remain hostile to China for the foreseeable future. So, Xi is open to negotiations because he wants breathing room on the economic side, so that China can consolidate its strength in the long-term competition.
Beijing remains concerned that Trump's team will focus on deep economy, regime change in China and support for Taiwan independence, all as ways to contain and destabilize China. Hence Xi's four “red lines”. in a November meeting with President Joe Biden Peru is a clear message to the incoming administration.
Beijing's strategic responses to Trump fall into three baskets: retaliation, adaptation and diversification. In response to US policies, Beijing in recent years has created a series of export controls, investment restrictions and regulatory investigations that could harm US companies. Beijing can't match the tariffs, so it will need to impose costs in ways that cause more pain. For China, failure to retaliate will show weakness within and only embolden Trump.
This has already begun. By the end of 2024, Beijing has blocked US exports of vital minerals used in chipmaking, clamped down on the supply chain for US-made drones, threatened to blacklist a top US goods company and launched an antitrust probe into Nvidia. By taking such steps, Beijing is looking at its strengths and making bargaining chips for the future.
China's second strategy is adaptation. Beginning in the fall of 2023, Beijing began a powerful fiscal and monetary stimulus to help businesses and now consumers. These policy changes produce positive, albeit uneven, effects. It was certainly much needed, but its scope and nature was also developed with a possible trade war in mind.
Beijing's third strategy involves expanding economic ties. Discusses unilateral tariff reductions on imports from non-US partners. During his trip to Peru, Xi unveiled a deep-water port that could restore China's trade with Latin America, a key non-US source of food, energy and minerals. In late 2024, Xi also participated for the first time in meetings with the heads of the 10 world economic organizations. His message was clear: China will be the key to the world's economic stability, prosperity and openness, and opposes all forms of protectionism.
A lot can go wrong. Beijing's confidence is matched by Trump's team. Both sides believe they have the upper hand, can impose more costs and endure more pain. The level is determined by a complex system, which eliminates stability, which leads to the cessation of firing. And that's only on economic issues, not Taiwan, the South China Sea, technological competition or nuclear power development. The cold war is beginning to look pale in comparison.