Welsh Grand National: Jamie Lynch's Guide to Chepstow's Showpiece

Jamie Lynch, our senior form analyst, weighs up the credentials of the top ten contenders for Chepstow's premiership on Friday, live on Sky Sports Racing.

The Coral Welsh Grand National, at 2.50pm on Friday, is a race steeped in history, having been run in the 19th century, and has stood the test of time. It still has great traction, as highlighted by this year's entries.

The track trial in early December has been a key point of the race in recent years, but we have no such clue this time after that meeting was lost to Storm Darragh, so, to help with homework, here's a rundown of the main contenders for the Chepstow showpiece and (before declarations) the verdict about the best bet.

Watch the Coral Welsh Grand National from Chepstow live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 519) on Friday 27 December.

Evies Vladimir

Coach: GP Cromwell

An intriguing competitor from the Irish stable with an excellent record with his British attackers (21 winners in the last three seasons). The lad sat on the sidelines for 18 months after laying the groundwork, but took off last season, promising greater heights in the future, and remained in the mix when he fell third at Porterstown on his return. He has hidden depths, but one thing that is clear from his record is that he loves mud.

Fontaine Collanges

Miss V Williams

This runner came back with a bang at Haydock (beating Monbeg Genius and Co.), but that's not unusual for her, given that the fresh is generally the best time to catch her, unlike her weaker second start back which saw her mark in fifth, fourth and ninth in previous seasons – a troublesome pattern for Chepstow. On the face of it, an 8lb rise to 148 for her demolition job at Haydock is by no means difficult, but history warns against reproduction, and she has lost on big fields in the past.

Gallia Des Liteaux

D Skelton

Her two attempts at marathons were arguably her best runs ever – second in the Classic Chase (from the time she came back until now) and eighth in the Grand National when she's still in the thick of things approaching the last. So far this season she hasn't reached her top line, but the ground hasn't been as soft as she likes and she looked as good as new for most of the Coral Gold Cup. This race is tailor-made for her.

Iron Bridge

Jonjo & AJ O'Neill

It's best to focus on the 17 he won rather than the one he couldn't (34 lengths behind runaway winner Nassalam) when judging his second place in this race last year, now 6lbs off the handicap thanks to a tough race run , and not any loss of ability as such. His reappearance at Carlisle was hardly enough of a test of endurance, so he shaped up well for third under 12st1lb behind Val Dancer, and everything is in place for a big run from him. He went a bit under the radar with the stable that also sent Monbeg Genius.

Iwilldoit

With Thomas

Been there, done that and got a few t-shirts. Welsh National Hero 2021, as well as almost winning a race without Nassalam last year (just behind Iron Bridge) when top weight, in association with the 7lb requirement then as here. He'll be 12 in a few days, but he's got relatively little mileage and, although he's been away for a long time, he's probably kept fresh for this one, remembering that he won the Classic Chase for the first time in 2023.

Jubilee Express

With Thomas

Least exposed after just ten runs, but has already shown what he is, a hardy mudlark, highlighted by the culmination of last season when he crumbled over 3½m on not only the heavy but the Haydock heavy. Having just crossed the line that day, Sam Thomas is likely to have hatched a plan for the Welsh National, a fitting test to stay in, and the lack of a prep run doesn't deter him so much given the first record in the stable that saw Iwilldoit win the Classic Chase after a year days.

Monbeg Genius

Jonjo & AJ O'Neill

What's still stuck in my mind is his third in the 2023 Ultima behind none other than Corach Rambler and Fastorslow, a miracle he hasn't managed to win since, but at least he's started this season better than he did last year by finishing second (after Fontaine Collonges) at Haydock. With his tools and talent, he could easily win this, but trusting him to do so is another matter, and the trust issues extend to endurance at Chepstow, his first marathon.

Snacking

Mr. Elliott

This competitor has youngsters on his side at just six years old, with five winners in the last 20 years. He surprised at Troytown at odds of 20-1 last time when the yard had nine runners, but the problem for the Welsh National is less the increased test (shape as a foundation holder) and more the increased grade, up to 9lb.

That seems excessive on the face of it given that the form hasn't quite matched the title in Navan, but what supports his chances is the simple fact that he is an unexposed horse from the Irish superpower's stable.

Where it all began

Mr. Elliott

Winless in his first seven races but finally flexing his endurance muscles made the difference in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown (beaten by 16 lengths on heavy ground) and probably sacrificed his chance in the Irish National itself by running on the Kim Muir at Cheltenham where he was pretty fourth to Inothewayurthinkin. I still have a sense of unfinished business around him, especially in terms of stamina, but it's a big desire to get here for the first time, even if we're dealing with Gordon Elliott.

Your own story

Miss Lucinda V Russell

You don't need a degree to diagnose a problem with His own story, a sure case of “seconditis”, finishing runner-up on no fewer than eight occasions over fences, including endurance races at Punchestown last May and Kelso, in the Borders National last time out. He'll do well in the long run, but if he couldn't beat those how will he beat this?

VERDICT OF JAMIE LYNCH

Once bitten twice shy, they say, but I put up with it GALIA DES LITEAUX for the Coral Gold Cup and I think the losses here can be made up for in a more suitable test, the company a little less hot, the journey much longer and, most importantly, the ground noticeably softer. If Dan Skelton could design a race for her, I'm pretty sure it would look like this.