“It's a really difficult moment, one of the most difficult moments in Manchester United's history and we have to deal with it honestly,” commented Ruben Amorim as the Red Devils slumped to a fourth successive defeat in all competitions.
Opening 30 minutes e Man Utd's 2-0 loss to Newcastle capping off a miserable 2024 were as punishing as we've seen at Old Trafford in the 11-and-a-half-year mess after Fergie.
A 64-year-old midfield pivot huffed and puffed as the Magpies' towering pivot ruthlessly combined past sluggish veterans to facilitate an early strike.
Stability followed once Kobbie Mainoo entered the fray, but United's fate was sealed after Amorim had picked his team.
The new manager's job was seismic upon arrival, but few would have had a relegation chip on their bingo card in 2024/25. Within two months of taking over, Amorim has said it is “really clear” that United are in for a fight.
After Ipswich Town secured their first home win of the season against Chelsea, United now have just a seven-point buffer in the relegation zone. They're a miserable outfit who don't seem to be improving under one of the hottest coaching qualities on the continent, but the Red Devils are surely not set for their first relegation since 1974, are they?
This is Manchester United we're talking about here.
Despite their decline and bleak short-term outlook, Select suggests that the real chances of United being relegated this season are slim.
In the last 10,000 simulations run by their supercomputer, the Red Devils were knocked out just 15 times (0.15%).
They have amassed 22 points at the halfway point in the 2024/25 campaign and are on course for 44 points at their current rate, but that trajectory falls short when you consider their record under Amorim. United are picking up 0.88 points per game with the Portuguese manager in charge which would see them finish the season with 39 points.
Either would be United's worst in Premier League history. 59 points in 2021/22 was their worst performance going into 2024/25.
According to the official Premier League websiteteams usually avoid relegation if they reach 36 points, but there have been six occasions in a 38-match season where clubs have been relegated with 39 or more points. The last time it happened was Blackpool in 2010/11. The teams have come off the back of far weaker Premier League seasons in recent times. Last season, for example, 18th-placed Luton Town scored 26 points.
Relegation may be highly unlikely, but the fact that we're having this discussion mid-season is a damning indictment of United's worsening decline. Select projects Amorim's side to finish a lowly 12th when all is said and done, but a busy January could swallow the draft whole.
Southampton visit Old Trafford on January 16aiming to drive United into a state of utter desperation.