Arsenal's striker transfer challenge: Alexander Isak highlights need for striker but no easy fix in January | Football News

Mikel Arteta's Carabao Cup match ball comments dominated the headlines following Arsenal's first-leg semi-final defeat by Newcastle on Tuesday, but the most revealing response in his press conference concerned the impact of Alexander Isak.

“I don't think he created or had any big chances, but he was involved in both goals, unfortunately with two times when he had the ball in the box,” Arteta said of Isak's contribution to the match-winner.

“That's what you have when you have real quality up front.”

It was an unusually frank comment from the Arsenal boss, with the not-so-subtle implication being that he does not possess a striker of a similar caliber. Arsenal are of course one of the 25-year-old's suitors. His performance at the Emirates Stadium underlined why.

While Isak took his chances, scoring the opener and setting up Newcastle's second with just two strikes of his own, Arsenal finished with nothing to show for 23 attempts. Their overall score of 3.09 expected goals was the highest by a Premier League side without a goal all season.

On the one hand, it is positive that they managed to create so many chances without their most creative player in Bukayo Saka, and with Martin Odegaard clearly below par after a bout of illness limited him to a substitute appearance against Brighton.

But the lack of top-end sharpness became an issue. Tuesday's game was Arsenal's sixth clean sheet of the campaign. There were seven more games in which they scored only one goal. Only three of those games ended in victory.

Arteta is under scrutiny. As much for his side's perceived dependence on set-pieces as for their struggle to convert scoring chances. But he is not the only manager for whom this is a problem.

The percentage of games in which Arsenal have scored at least one goal is actually the third lowest among Premier League teams this season. The problem is that he is far bigger than Liverpool, the side they are struggling to keep up with at the top of the table.

It's not new for Arsenal either.

Arsenal set a club record with a total of 91 goals in the Premier League last season, but there were eight games in all competitions where they failed to find the back of the net, seven of which ended in defeat. Eventual champions Manchester City had just four such games during the campaign.

Arteta has built an outstanding defense. Their mistakes against Newcastle were uncharacteristic. But recent history shows the value of firepower, alongside defensive stinginess, when it comes to winning the biggest prizes – and that's where Arsenal fall short.

Kai Havertz proved to be an invaluable outlet. His recent goal against Ipswich was his 12th in all competitions, and he has also produced good results after stepping into the role last term. Gabriel Jesus, meanwhile, is on his best points streak since joining Arsenal.

But both players are maddeningly frustrating finishers, something that shows in the underlying data.

While Arsenal's supporting forwards have outperformed their expected targets to varying degrees over the last three seasons, even with recent slumps, their back nines have done the opposite.

According to Opti's Expected Goals Model, Havertz and Jesus scored roughly five goals less than they should have, based on the quality of their chances. For Havertz, Tuesday's game, when he missed opportunities worth 1.13 xG, was a typical problem.

Why Isak, Cunha and Mbeumo are attractive

The timing was particularly unfortunate given the exploits of his opposite number Isaac at the other end of the pitch.

His goal was his 10th in his last nine games, 15th of the season and 50th in 89 appearances since his £63million 2022 arrival at Newcastle from Real Sociedad.

There is no exact science to the art of scoring goals. But the best players tend to score more goals than 'expected', often aided by an ability to convert the more difficult chances as well as the simpler ones, something that usually translates into consistent xG performance.

These players have a visible ability to make decisions on the sidelines and Isak is certainly one of them. Basic figures for the last three seasons show that he has scored almost four goals more than expected, scoring 44 goals in the Premier League with 40.45 xG.

It's worth noting that Wolves' Matheus Cunha and Brentford's Bryan Mbeumo, two of Arsenal's other reported attacking targets, have shown the same ability.

Cunha's total of 24 goals with 15.6 xG gives him the second highest positive differential among Premier League players with a minimum of 15 goals since the start of the 2022/23 season. Mbeumo, who like Isak recently scored against Arsenal, is not far behind him in the rankings with a total of 31 goals at 25.69 xG.

Arteta is well aware of Arsenal's need for a finisher. His comments at the press conference following their loss to Isak on Tuesday left little room for doubt. But identifying goals is one thing; their insurance, especially in the middle of the season, is another.

Isaac is said to be valued at £150m. He has little incentive to leave and his club have little incentive to sell as he leads their efforts to win silverware and return to the Champions League. Signing him in the summer would be challenging enough, never mind in January.

Cunha and Mbeumo are similarly important to Wolves and Brentford, and while the latter's contract expires in 18 months, the former is in talks over a new contract.

Arsenal's other option is to look abroad. But the challenge of adapting to the rigors of the Premier League faced by newcomers, particularly mid-season, is such that the club have generally favored Premier League-ready additions under Arteta.

In other words, there is no easy solution. But Arsenal must do their best to find him even in difficult circumstances. The need for more firepower was evident even before Saka's injury. Tuesday's defeat, and Arteta's comments afterwards, only highlighted the problem.