Senior form analyst Jamie Lynch is looking forward to a big betting contest on day one of the Berkshire Winter Million at Windsor on Friday, live on Sky Sports Racing.
The Fitzdares Sovereign Handicap Hurdle at 15.35 is as strong as any Premier Handicap in Britain so far this season.
Four horses are rated higher in this category than the top weight at Greatwood, and there's a quantity to go with it, with just one of the 14 weights. Let's take a deeper look at the field.
1. Brentford Hope
Jockey: Paul O'Brien | Coach: Harry Derham
Gave an Arc entry once upon a time. Runner-up in the Grade Two Elite on his re-emergence, and no doubt to that level, but the big field handicaps are his bag, highlighted by his signing last season, an excellent second (of 24), also below the top of the weight, Daddy Long Legs- in at the Punchestown Festival.
He is probably singled out for this valuable award, at a track that should really suit him, given his strong traveling style.
2. Hansard
Niall Houlihan | Gary & Josh Moore
He still has a sense of unfinished business about him, partly because he has only had eight races in three seasons over hurdles, after a full year when a promising fourth at Kempton over Christmas, she started at 11/1 but traded the race at 2/ 1, telling how he traveled before making up for his absence.
Hansard
He beat Brentford Hope among others at Newbury last season, in a similar setting to here, and the only previous time he was in double figures resulted in two wins and a fourth in Grade One.
3. Cabral Du Mathan
Harry Cobden | Paul Nicholls
The fast-improving five-year-old won his first three races before being beaten by Fiercely Proud by just a length in the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Ascot, when the pair drew 17l. This left the handicapper little option but to increase it by 8lb, although there were more forces pulling the race than simply springs on the top two.
Cabral du Mathan
It also boggles the mind how tough his run at Ascot less than four weeks ago was, potentially from the impact on one so young, but that's hypothetical, and his pillars of positivity are evident.
4. Knickerbockerglory
Harry Skelton | Dan Skelton
The Fresh Prince, who won first time out for the third successive season, beating Nemean Lion at Sandown, conceding 18lb and an easy lead on heavy ground, followed by a career high mark of 139, when he later struggled from a mark in the mid-130s in his last few campaigns. A heuristic model of using past behavior to predict the future predicts danger for Knickerbockerglory and the coming lull.
5. Beat The Bat
Bryan Carver | Harry Fry
It's easy to say he's ahead of the mark, based on his second to Dysart Enos (giving her a mares allowance) at the end of his last campaign in tandem with his handicap debut at the start of this one, runner-up in a high-flying Haydock quality and quantity. The stable won Sovereign's only previous race going forward, with Metier, and Beat The Bat arguably has his prime ahead of him after just seven races.
6. Cracking Rhapsody
Craig Nichol | Ewan Whillans
Ewan Whillans generally has a happy habit of upping his game with every race, as his surface stats of 5/12 speak for, although the only time he set foot outside Scotland or the North was a rather tough experience at Cheltenham in this season's Greatwood (he finished 10 . on 33/1). He has since bounced high at his beloved Kells, but is back swimming in a completely different pool here, and more so than ever in a handicap.
7. Give me a high five
Michael O'Sullivan | Harry Derham
Givemefive was target-trained to win a high-value four-year-old event at Cheltenham in October, before his limitations were exposed in a Grade Three at Fairyhouse next month, in the jet of the exciting Anzadam.
This will be his first handicap over hurdles, and the only question is whether he is really worth 132, still resting on his Adonis second for that. I made him a second or third string in the barn behind Brentford Hope.
8. Go Dante
James Bowen | Olly Murphy
Go Dante was in the form of his life last term and duly won the Imperial Cup and is now just 1lb taller. However, that is due to some disrupted standards so far this season, having been worryingly withdrawn in the Ladbrokes Hurdle when tried without his usual cheeks ( back here ). Perhaps it is the case that Father Time met Mother Nature at the age of nine.
9. Hardy Du Seuil
William Featherstone (7) | Jamie Snowden
It pays, but one win in the last three years tells the story, and the fact remains that 0/8 of the marks are in the 130s, hurdles and fences, often in smaller handicaps than this. A second reappearance at Carlisle shows that all his abilities and appetite are intact, but he is biting off more than he can chew in this company.
10. Court of law
Harry Reed | Harry Derham
Harry Derham's attack has few flaws and shortcomings but can be destructive when lost in the lead, as was the case on his return to Market Rasen, where he never troubled his odds-on supporters despite his trademark stargazing. The problem is that this contest is much tougher, including the lead (with Knickerbockerglory in the line-up), and he threw in the towel in a similarly hot handicap (novice final at Sandown) last spring.
11. Wreckless Eric
Kielan Woods | Jonjo & AJ O'Neill
Wreckless Eric is a fast rising player who has beaten 26 of 27 rivals in the Cheltenham Handicap in his last two starts. Only the enterprising Mirabad did for him in a race that did not reach the bottom of Wreckless Eric, who dropped out again. This will test the theory that the better the race the better, but he is definitely in that mold. There's no telling how high he could go, considering he's only five years old and has only six races. A good gallop would help reveal his latent talent.
12. Navajo India
Gavin Sheehan | Tom Symonds
On the roll, his confidence is high too, but so is his rating after a successful handicap debut in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury, up 8lb, when the race was easier than it looked (few entered it).
The Navajo Indy also goes to the post office on Friday
It's not just a recalibrated rating, as the course and pace will be different here, but perhaps most importantly, no horse in the field enters hotter than him.
13. Secret Squirrel
Nico de Boinville | Hughie Morrison
This horse was arguably the moral winner in the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Ascot as he went far better and for much longer than the others who overdid things up front and was third when he last went. He has to recover from a hard crash and a tough race, which will be easier said than done.
Still, Ascot encouraged a sense that there was still in him that greater performance that he had long threatened.
14. Oval tower
Isabel Williams (3) | Evan Williams
The Tour Ovalie is going from strength to strength and bagged a hat-trick at Newbury, where she was very good to catch Break My Soul when nothing else came close to the short-priced favourite. However, she has to climb the mountain out of handicap, carrying 6 pounds more than her reassessed rating.
The verdict of Jamie Lynch
This is a race full of improvement, but the challenge is to find one with even more up her sleeve, and the best in that regard could be the five-year-old Wreckless Ericwho would have won his second successive handicap at Cheltenham had it not been for an inspired ride by Mirabad. His late style also lends itself well to the way the race is planned.
Watch every race on day one of the Berkshire Winter Million at Windsor live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415) on Friday 17 January.