Patrick Mahomes vs Josh Allen. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills. Another playoff humdinger. Another Super Bowl appearance on the line. The latest series of the best rivalry in the current era of the NFL.
We've been here before. Here we are once again. And we will be here again in the future, no doubt.
Mahomes and Allen will meet for the fourth time in the postseason, where the Chiefs quarterback has a 3-0 record over his bitterest rival. Allen, meanwhile, is 4-1 against Mahomes in the regular season, knowing full well how little that means this time of year.
Buffalo shut out Kansas City in a 27-24 loss in the Divisional Round last year, and were 13 seconds away from beating the Chiefs in their infamous 2021 Divisional Round matchup only to have Mahomes make the game-tying field goal before that. Travis Kelce's touchdown clinched it in overtime.
“It's almost like 'who cares who wins in the regular season?', that's what you do in the postseason,” Sky Sports NFL's Phoebe Schecter said on the latest episode of Inside the Huddle.
“We'll see how the Bills overcome the Chiefs mountain yet. “I'm worried about this game for the Bills. These Chiefs are stronger than they've been all season – Hollywood Brown is back, all these active receivers, Travis Kelce is having the best point of his year, he's a superstar in the postseason.
“It's going to be a really tough challenge. This Chiefs team knows how to survive.”
If Mahomes — despite his least prolific campaign statistically — remains the NFL's consensus No. 1 quarterback in the midst of his Super Bowl dominance, then Allen has arguably cemented himself as his closest challenger.
Allen's 313.9 rushing yards per game is the most by a quarterback in NFL playoff history, followed by Mahomes' second-highest average of 307.9 yards per game. The Bills man also tops any player with 262 offensive touchdowns since entering the league in 2018, three more than Mahomes' 259 in that span since taking over as the Chiefs' full-time starter.
Both, meanwhile, demonstrated the need for success in the future – pure football.
“Every team that won last week didn't turn the football over,” said Sky Sports NFL's Neil Reynolds. “Every team that lost got a team that won.”
“The Chiefs haven't turned it over in eight games. Buffalo forced three turnovers, so that battle right there is going to come down to magic from Mahomes, Kelce and Allen, but the fundamentals of taking care of the football are a big part of this game.”
Allen displayed one of the most drastic cases of quarterback development in modern times between his first and second years with the Bills, ironing out debilitating accuracy issues to become one of the league's most devastating weapons under then-offensive coordinator Brian Daboll.
Since then, he's continued to develop by eradicating cheap sacks and costly turnovers amid his pursuit of a long-awaited Super Bowl berth, learning the importance of fine margins the hard way against the Chiefs. Buffalo's offense entered 2024 minus a star like Stefon Diggs on the outside, instead relying on teamwork and the brilliance of quarterback James Cook.
“That's where the running game is so important in the postseason, they didn't have this option before and it had to be Allen before he made these monster plays,” Schecter said.
“It was a big growth moment watching Allen on fourth and short against the Ravens where they don't get it, there's an old Josh moment where he thinks about pitching it to James Cook and then pulls it back, but in the past he would have tried those superhero plays.
“He doesn't have to now, he's got that patience and development. Josh is very different from anyone we've ever seen.”
Allen finished the regular season 307-of-483 passing for 3,731 for 28 touchdowns to six interceptions while rushing for 531 yards and 12 scores as the first player in history with five consecutive 40-touchdown seasons. He was barely called into action during the Divisional Round, though, throwing for just 127 yards while rushing for two touchdowns in a 27-25 win over Baltimore, which turned the ball over three times.
He faces another meeting with Steve Spagnuolo, who has acquired the number of every quarterback in the NFL amid a team rebrand that has seen the Chiefs evolve from a high-octane offensive firework to a stubborn, shape-shifting defensive puzzle.
“I think they're going to find different ways to create simulated pressure, try to counter him, make him hold the ball a little longer while collapsing the pocket,” Chiefs defensive end Schecter said.
“You don't want to let him out of the pocket, he was so clean in the sense that he didn't take a sack, but he's not susceptible to that.
“There really isn't a true No. 1 receiver, Shakir is probably the closest thing, but you have nine players with over 200 receiving yards, and that's going to be tricky because the Chiefs defense is susceptible to tight ends and plays well.”
The Chiefs won 11 games by one score this season en route to a 15-2 record and the No. 1 seed despite rarely enjoying a period of offensive dominance. But no one, at least since Mahomes arrived, has done better in playoff football.
Sunday will mark their seventh consecutive AFC Championship game.
“I will say that Kansas City continues its playoff misery,” Reynolds said.
“Part of the aura is huge for me, the Chiefs are winning, that's why they've been doing what they've been doing year in and year out, Andy Reid is going to figure something out, Spags is going to figure something out.
“But I was more worried about Buffalo against Baltimore last year from an Xs and Os perspective – I'm more worried about Derrick Henry than Kareem Hunt. I actually think tactically and playwise Buffalo has a better shot – but it's the Chiefs!”
Allen: Mahomes is one of the greatest to do that
Allen overwhelmed Mahomes and the Chiefs in Week 11 of the campaign when he donned his superhero cape and scored a game-winning 26-yard run on fourth down. For once, Andy Reid's side could not muster a response.
The Chiefs, however, remain the bar to which the rest of the league strives as they chase a historic third straight Super Bowl victory. Allen knows better than anyone about the postseason monster standing in his way.
While less easy on the eye compared to earlier years under Mahomes, they have become a winning machine.
“They control the ball extremely well,” Allen said. “They don't make bad decisions. Obviously, Patrick is one of the best to ever play the game, and they're one of the greatest teams that's ever been put together going into a three-peat.
“And that's what everybody wants to be in this league, is to have the sustained success that they've had. But again, they play great situational football.
“They understand when it's time to walk away and when it's time to turn someone down. So, again, that's what we want to be.”
Mahomes: The Chiefs have to be at their best
The rivalry between Mahomes and Allen has drawn comparisons to that between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning as the NFL's two leading quarterbacks battling for AFC supremacy.
Kansas City just watched as Buffalo likely blocked – MVP Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and a league-leading rushing attack that finished as the second most prolific offense in the NFL. One-score wins have been the theme of the Chiefs' season, but they will know Sunday could be a straight shootout.
“I think when you look at the great rivalries of the NFL, it comes with this,” Mahomes said. “It comes with playing each other every year in the regular season, it comes with playing in the playoffs.
“You have to fight, you have to look at your weaknesses and try to make those strengths and then your strengths, make them even better because you know they're going to come out and try to take those things away.
“It's a great football team, like I said, great players, well coached, and we know we're going to do our best to find a way to win.
“I've played against Josh (Allen) enough times to know he's going to go out there and play great football, especially in those big moments. For me, I've got to play my best football whenever I get a chance and try to put our team in the best position for success.”
Watch Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship Game live on Sky Sports NFL on Sunday at 8pm, followed by Chiefs vs Bills in the AFC Championship Game at 11.30pm