India's chances of reaching the ICC World Test Championship (WTC 2025 final) hinge on Pakistan's next two-match Test series against South Africa. Pakistan can boost India's hopes by beating South Africa in their series if Rohit Sharmathe led team fails to win Australia in the next two tests.
Four TEAMS— Australia, India, South Africa and Sri Lanka — are vying for the two places in the World Test Championship final to be played at Lord's next year. Australia, India and South Africa are strong contenders but Sri Lanka still have an outside chance to secure their first WTC finals appearance.
South Africa currently leads the WTC 2023-25 rankings
South Africa currently lead the WTC 2023-25 table and have the opportunity to strengthen their position with two Tests at home against Pakistan. Meanwhile, India face a tough challenge as their qualification hopes hinge on winning the final two Tests against Australia in Melbourne and Sydney.
India needed a 4-1 win in the BGT 2024-25 series to advance to the WTC 2025 final. The five-match Test series is currently tied 1-1. Team India's chances of qualification were badly damaged by a defeat in the second Test against Australia in Adelaide and a draw in the third Test at the Gabba in Brisbane.
India were unbeaten in the Melbourne and Sydney Tests since January 2012
India have been unbeaten in the Melbourne and Sydney Tests since January 2012. Securing wins in both the remaining matches will guarantee India a place in the next WTC final. However, a draw in either match would force them to rely on Pakistan beating South Africa to keep their qualification hopes alive.
India can take their run percentage (PCT) to 60.53% if they win their next two Test matches. It will be impossible for Australia to overcome them even if they whitewash Sri Lanka in the upcoming series. However, if India win just one match and lose the other, their PCT would drop to 55.26%.
South Africa currently leads the WTC ranking with a PCT of 63.33%. However, a 0-2 series defeat to Pakistan would reduce their PCT to a maximum of 52.78%. If Pakistan secure this result, India could qualify for the WTC final even with just one win in the last two Tests, with South Africa below India.
The next Test match in India will start on December 26
To qualify, India need one more win, Pakistan's 2-0 win over South Africa and Australia's 2-0 win over Sri Lanka. In this scenario, India would finish with a PCT of at least 55.26%, South Africa would drop to 52.78%, and Australia would remain on top with a PCT of at least 57.01%.
The Rohit Sharma-led side's next match against Australia will begin on Thursday, December 26 in Melbourne. Meanwhile, Pakistan will face South Africa in Centurion and their performance will be crucial for India's chances.
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