Arne Slott's Liverpool have been the Premier League's dominant force in the 2024/25 season, but history suggests there is hope for their main challengers.
or 6-3 win over Tottenham it means the Reds sit top of the Premier League table at Christmas for a seventh time. They have won the title only once. While Manchester City are currently unable to challenge again, this statistic will no doubt raise a few eyebrows in north and west London.
While Liverpool convert their Christmas fillies into headlines at a conversion rate of 16.6%, 16 of their 32 Christmas openers have been converted. However, the figures show that the Reds' current position, as strong as it is, is far from inevitable come May 2025.
Much of the discourse at this time of year surrounds the potential title winners and City's relegation only adds to the intrigue in 2024. However, this Premier League is proving to be somewhat of an oddity and fascinating stories are emerging from up and down the table.
As it stands, we look on course for some surprise European entries, potentially even a continental debut, and mid-table indifference for members of the so-called 'Big Six'. Unpredictability spreads towards the relegation zone with the newly promoted folk struggling to compete, but Wolves' struggles could ensure there are relegation stories to sink into at the end.
Here's how Opta's supercomputer is projecting the final 2024/25 Premier League table to be viewed on Christmas Day.
|
POSITION |
Team |
Chance of completing the position (%) |
|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Liverpool |
86.0 |
|
2. |
Arsenal |
54.0 |
|
3. |
Chelsea |
43.6 |
|
4. |
Man City |
43.9 |
|
5. |
Aston Villa |
16.9 |
|
6. |
Newcastle |
14.9 |
|
7. |
Nottingham Forest |
13.1 |
|
8. |
Bournemouth |
13.4 |
|
9. |
Tottenham |
12.1 |
|
10. |
Man Utd |
12.7 |
|
11. |
Brighton |
12.3 |
|
12. |
Fulham |
12.6 |
|
13. |
Brentford |
17.5 |
|
14. |
West Ham |
19.9 |
|
15. |
Crystal Palace |
23.9 |
|
16. |
Everton |
34.9 |
|
17. |
Wolves |
30.8 |
|
18. |
Leicester |
31.6 |
|
19. |
Ipswich |
37.7 |
|
20. |
Southampton |
77.0 |
Opta are convinced by Liverpool. They give the Reds an 86% chance of winning the second Premier League title after extending their lead over second-placed Chelsea to four points at the weekend. They are six points clear of Arsenal, who Opta rank as Liverpool's biggest threat, having played a game less than their London rivals.
The Gunners are currently third but have a much better chance of winning the league than Enzo Maresca's Blues. Opta delivers Arsenal a hit of 10.3% and Chelsea only a 3.1% chance.
The perennial champions Manchester City it's seven on Christmas and with no hope of winning a fifth title in a row. Opta, however, has not completely given up on Pep Guardiola's side. They are the only team other than those mentioned to have more than a 0.01% chance of winning the title (0.6%).
The supercomputer backs City to bounce back in the second half of the season and has disagreed with Michael Owen's assessment, made impressively long before their current abysmal run, that City will not finish in the top four. Opta give Guardiola's players a 43.9% chance of finishing fourth and a 76.4% chance of finishing in the top four.
The odds are more favorable for Aston Villa and Newcastle than for Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest, but the latter pair could end the season with European football secured for next season. Forest are predicted to finish seventh and Bournemouth eighth. The odds and domestic cup winners will decide whether eighth place is enough for the Cherries to enjoy their first taste of continental action.
Tottenham and Manchester United could still finish in the top half, but both clubs will be sorely disappointed with their respective places of ninth and tenth.
London dominate the top half, while Everton look set for a year of comfort above the drop zone. Wolves are 18th on Christmas Day but Opta are backing new manager Vitor Pereira to guide the West Midlanders to safety. Wolves still have a 52.5% chance of going down, but Leicester (62%), Ipswich (76.9%) and Southampton (97.8%) are all favored over Pereira's side. The Saints, who have just appointed Ivan Juric to succeed Russell Martin, have been relegated to the second tier. Opta gives them a 77% chance of finishing bottom of the pack when all is said and done.